ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

GFS on steroids

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ics_51.png

What does 987mb on a global model like GFS translate to in actual pressure? I thought I read somewhere (execuse my ignorance ) that the global models don't handle sea level pressure all that well for tropical systems?

987 in this pattern would be a solid hurricane, maybe pushing Cat 2.

[wxman57]

Classic spiral banding, reminds me of Hurricane Hugo but obviously not the same intensity.

And considerably smaller. Other than being drastically different in intensity and size, they're pretty similar.

[Hurricaneman]

I think this will become a hurricane before the islands, but after that is quite questionable as shear could be present

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[CrazyC83]

Wouldn't the isobars in that 10-day pattern just keep it going west towards Florida?

[ronjon]

GFS on steroids

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ics_51.png

What does 987mb on a global model like GFS translate to in actual pressure? I thought I read somewhere (execuse my ignorance ) that the global models don't handle sea level pressure all that well for tropical systems?

987 in this pattern would be a solid hurricane, maybe pushing Cat 2.

Well I'm sure this run of the GFS got NHC 's attention! Might have to update those intensity forecasts if this continues.

[tolakram]

Some saved images of the 12Z GFS showing a recurving system. A nail biter coming up for the next few days.

[PTrackerLA]

That's a very close call for the East Coast on the 12z GFS run. Expect the windshield wiping to begin!

[CrazyC83]

Intensifying right up to Nova Scotia, wow!

[tolakram]

I added an earlier image. The islands need to be watching very closely, I'm hoping it will go north but certainly not a sure bet yet.

[Riptide]

Intensifying right up to Nova Scotia, wow!

August NE Hurricanes usually mean business.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, Dorian is going to keep us up late a many of nights coming up that's for sure. The weakness is strong enough on those latest 12Z runs to enable Dorian to curve and just miss the U.S. East Coast. But, this is still a long way out and I am certain there will be several other changes with the models with time. Definitely must pay close attenion the next 7-10 days with my obvious understatement!

[ronjon]

Lol, I can see the east coast media Jumping on board the hype train already with that run.

[AtlanticWind]

I think this will become a hurricane before the islands, but after that is quite questionable as shear could be present

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

According to the GFS it would become a hurricane after the islands , It would encounter shear as it neared the islands

[CrazyC83]

Yeah, Dorian is going to keep us up late a many of nights coming up that's for sure. The weakness is strong enough on those latest 12Z runs to enable Dorian to curve and just miss the U.S. East Coast. But, this is still a long way out and I am certain there will be several other changes with the models with time. Definitely must pay close attenion the next 7-10 days with my obvious understaement!

If that weakness fails to develop, it keeps going west?

[tolakram]

Canadian running, keeping it weaker.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

[Steve H.]

I wouldn't bet on that run. Think it will end up further west over time. That's generally the way it works. Still early in the game.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[CrazyC83]

I wouldn't bet on that run. Think it will end up further west over time. That's generally the way it works. Still early in the game.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I agree. I'm personally not buying the recurve at all. Too far south, too weak and ridge too strong.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, Dorian is going to keep us up late a many of nights coming up that's for sure. The weakness is strong enough on those latest 12Z runs to enable Dorian to curve and just miss the U.S. East Coast. But, this is still a long way out and I am certain there will be several other changes with the models with time. Definitely must pay close attenion the next 7-10 days with my obvious understaement!

If that weakness fails to develop, it keeps going west?

If the ridge builds back in stronger, then Dorian will head more west, and possibly be a threat to the Bahamas, Florida, and maybe the EGOM. It is going to be a close call as there will be a trough developing cross the Eastern CONUS going into this weekend. However, if the trough lifts out early next week and the ridge builds back in, then all of us really will have to really pay attention. It is all about timing as always with forecasting the track of tropical cyclones.

Just have to watch closely. More changes I am certain are going to come in the coming days from the models.

[Weatherboy1]

It's so far out that I'm sure the models will be doing a lot of "windshield wiping" runs, first showing recurve, then path to the WNW, then back again, and so on. We really are likely 7-8 days from any U.S. impact, and 4-5 days out from the islands, so just keep in mind that longer-term model runs are more "for entertainment only" in terms of knowing whether your specific location will be impacted. Certainly, though, climatology would tend to suggest that a system this far north that far east is more of a candidate for recurvature than anything else.

[Javlin]

While they maybe to some degree for entertainment one thing that seems to permiate in the models is a serious high pressure to the N out to 180 hrs