ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[Stormcenter]

Sounds to me like the main weather will be along the N. Central GOM not related to 92L. IMO

[gatorcane]

Dean I see what you think might be an LLC moving NNW off the Northern coast of the Yucatan but I don't think that is a low-level center.

If this is going to develop, it's that naked swirl in the BOC. Looks like it has a decent chance but not if something tries to get going north in the Gulf. Conditions are not good for development there. The swirl has alot of spin and convection is not too far off to the NE that may start to wrap more.

A threat to Mexico, maybe extreme Southern Texas, but probably more rain than anything else.

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[Stormcenter]

Is this not all odd or what?

[Stormcenter]

If you read the TWO from 2pm it still sounds like the NHC is not sold on 92L moving W or WNW in the long term. IMO

[Portastorm]

If you read the TWO from 2pm it still sounds like the NHC is not sold on 92L moving W or WNW in the long term. IMO

It's no different than what they mentioned in this morning's TWO. And considering that as recent as last night they didn't even reference the potential of a system moving west or west-northwest, I think it's safe to say they have not been "sold" on any solution just yet. And why should they be? Way too much uncertainty at this point.

[MGC]

NWS New Orleans thinks a wake depression is on the way? We had one come through here in the spring and it was really gusty for several hours....MGC

[wxman57]

I'm not "sold" on either the WNW track or the north track yet. It's a toss-up. If it goes north it'll hit a wall of shear north of 26N associated with the trof digging into the Gulf over the weekend. A good bit of shear to the WNW, too.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

[beoumont]

It don't come easy.

It's not 2004.
It is not 2005.

[JonathanBelles]

Very interesting. This was from 21 hours ago:

https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/36811 ... 49/photo/1

@wxbrad 21h
.@NHCDirector Are we experimenting with tracks for #Invest areas or was this a internal test sent out? Curious.

@NHCDirector 2m
.@wxbrad This year NHC is experimenting in house with track/intensity forecasts for disturbances with high chance of formation.

['CaneFreak]

All centers are now stacked over the system. Just waiting on some convection to pop near the center.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track.

AL, 92, 2013081618, , BEST, 0, 215N, 915W, 25, 1009, LO

[Bailey1777]

same coordinaes i had it at about 4 hours ago.

[ROCK]

not moving much

[Stormcenter]

At all.

not moving much

[HouTXmetro]

The ULL was impeding it's progress. The path North was blocked.

[Calin1171]

Long time lurker here - finally deciding to ask a question...

If the "wake depression" the NWS out of New Orleans mentions does head towards the LA coast, what kind of wind velocity would be expected? I see mention of rainfall events, but nothing about wind speeds.

[HouTXmetro]

All centers are now stacked over the system. Just waiting on some convection to pop near the center.

Not at all, you can Clearly see the LLC West of the NW Tip of the Yucatan on Visible Loop.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... height=480

Meanwhile the ULL is still NNW of the NW tip of the Yucatan on the Water Vapor Loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

['CaneFreak]

500 mb vorticity, 700 mb vorticity, 850 mb vorticity - as I said, fairly well stacked

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Not at all, you can Clearly see the LLC West of the NW Tip of the Yucatan on Visible Loop.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... height=480

Meanwhile the ULL is still NNW of the NW tip of the Yucatan on the Water Vapor Loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

[CaneCurious]

Very interesting. This was from 21 hours ago:

https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/36811 ... 49/photo/1

@wxbrad 21h
.@NHCDirector Are we experimenting with tracks for #Invest areas or was this a internal test sent out? Curious.

@NHCDirector 2m
.@wxbrad This year NHC is experimenting in house with track/intensity forecasts for disturbances with high chance of formation.

Do we know what this is about?

['CaneFreak]

Nothing out of the ordinary. 25 or 30 mph tops.

Long time lurker here - finally deciding to ask a question...

If the "wake depression" the NWS out of New Orleans mentions does head towards the LA coast, what kind of wind velocity would be expected? I see mention of rainfall events, but nothing about wind speeds.