EPAC: OLAF - Post-Tropical

#141 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 11:22 am

I think this has to be up there for best looking "Olaf" named storm?

12z GFS a bit more west so far; heading NE.

1900hurricane · #142 Postby **1900hurricane** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 11:25 am

Guidance does seem to be having some difficulty with the NPac pattern at the moment. On the other side of the Pacific, Champi, which became more intense than expected, is recurving at a considerably slower rate than was forecast a few days ago. Slower/later poleward movements compared to guidence appears to be the trend right now.

#143 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 11:35 am

1900hurricane wrote:Guidance does seem to be having some difficulty with the NPac pattern at the moment. On the other side of the Pacific, Champi, which became more intense than expected, is recurving at a considerably slower rate than was forecast a few days ago. Slower/later poleward movements compared to guidence appears to be the trend right now.

That's interesting. Thanks for pointing that out.

I think the CPHC should task Gonzo to help the models out. Don't think we need recon yet.

#144 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 12:48 pm

CMC has shifted well east of its previous run.

Do not remember this much flip-flopping. Even Joaquin didn't have this much

I'd really like this to start gaining latitude and the ensembles to also shift east

#145 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 12:57 pm

Maybe the Euro will switch East for some consensus.

#146 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 1:04 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Maybe the Euro will switch East for some consensus.

need the ensembles to switch east. They showed a bifurcation at 0Z

#147 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 1:15 pm

EC is a bit to the SW of the MU through 69 hours

however, it is well north of the 0Z EC

#148 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 1:18 pm

Alyono wrote:EC is a bit to the SW of the MU through 69 hours

however, it is well north of the 0Z EC

Through 96hrs
Now a hair S/SW of 00z.

#149 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 1:25 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Alyono wrote:EC is a bit to the SW of the MU through 69 hours

however, it is well north of the 0Z EC

Through 96hrs
Now a hair S/SW of 00z.

you've got them backwards. 0Z SW of 12Z

#150 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 1:28 pm

Alyono wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Alyono wrote:EC is a bit to the SW of the MU through 69 hours

however, it is well north of the 0Z EC

Through 96hrs
Now a hair S/SW of 00z.

you've got them backwards. 0Z SW of 12Z

Oops. Looks like it's east of the 00z run @ 144 hrs. MAYBE it's finally aligning with the GFS.

#151 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 1:31 pm

TXPZ29 KNES 191818
TCSENP

A. 19E (OLAF)

B. 19/1800Z

C. 10.0N

D. 138.2W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...OW EYE EMBEDDED IN B FOR AN E# OF 5.5. EYE SURROUNDED BY
W RING FOR +0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT. DT IS 6.0. MET IS 5.5 AND PT IS 6.0. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

...VELASCO

#152 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 1:50 pm

now ec flips for the 10 trillionth time. Was going east yesterday morning as well. No consistency. Deterministic models have been nearly worthless with this storm and I'm becoming quite irritated

looks to be going to California this run

#153 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 1:54 pm

Alyono wrote:now ec flips for the 10 trillionth time. Was going east yesterday morning as well. No consistency. Deterministic models have been nearly worthless with this storm and I'm becoming quite irritated

Ensembles should be out in a couple of hours. So we'll see how much this run means.

#154 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 2:09 pm

I wonder where the EC cultists are now. Their model is proving to have no clue in a complex pattern

#155 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 2:19 pm

This flip flopping is to be expected 5 days out. I wouldn't get too worried yet.

#156 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 2:20 pm

Code: Select all

EP, 19, 2015101918,   , BEST,   0, 100N, 1382W, 115,  954, HU,  34, NEQ,   90,  120,   50,   70, 1010,  270,  15,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,       OLAF, D,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 033, 
EP, 19, 2015101918,   , BEST,   0, 100N, 1382W, 115,  954, HU,  50, NEQ,   40,   50,   30,   40, 1010,  270,  15,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,       OLAF, D,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 033, 
EP, 19, 2015101918,   , BEST,   0, 100N, 1382W, 115,  954, HU,  64, NEQ,   25,   20,   15,   15, 1010,  270,  15,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,       OLAF, D,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 033,

#157 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 2:25 pm

TAFB 6.0:

Code: Select all

201510191800,  10, DVTS,         CI,  , 1000N, 13820W,      , 1, 115, 2,  948, 2, DVRK,    ,     ,     ,     ,     ,     ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,    ,  10, E,  TAFB,  JA,   VI, 1, 6060 /////,      ,   , GOES15,  CSC, T, Very solid ring of white color on BD curver surround

#158 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 2:50 pm

seeing flops from Hawaii to California does not lead to any confidence in the forecast

#159 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 3:18 pm

MU ensemble PDF has shifted westward

#160 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Oct 19, 2015 3:21 pm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 OCT 2015 Time : 193000 UTC
Lat : 9:56:30 N Lon : 138:23:59 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 953.3mb/115.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.2 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -7.6C Cloud Region Temp : -68.5C

Scene Type : EYE

EPAC: OLAF - Post-Tropical

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