EPAC: OLAF - Post-Tropical
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- Kingarabian
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- 1900hurricane
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Guidance does seem to be having some difficulty with the NPac pattern at the moment. On the other side of the Pacific, Champi, which became more intense than expected, is recurving at a considerably slower rate than was forecast a few days ago. Slower/later poleward movements compared to guidence appears to be the trend right now.
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- Kingarabian
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Re:
1900hurricane wrote:Guidance does seem to be having some difficulty with the NPac pattern at the moment. On the other side of the Pacific, Champi, which became more intense than expected, is recurving at a considerably slower rate than was forecast a few days ago. Slower/later poleward movements compared to guidence appears to be the trend right now.
That's interesting. Thanks for pointing that out.
I think the CPHC should task Gonzo to help the models out. Don't think we need recon yet.
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- Kingarabian
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- Kingarabian
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Re:
Alyono wrote:EC is a bit to the SW of the MU through 69 hours
however, it is well north of the 0Z EC
Through 96hrs
Now a hair S/SW of 00z.
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Re: Re:
Kingarabian wrote:Alyono wrote:EC is a bit to the SW of the MU through 69 hours
however, it is well north of the 0Z EC
Through 96hrs
Now a hair S/SW of 00z.
you've got them backwards. 0Z SW of 12Z
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- Kingarabian
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Re: Re:
Alyono wrote:Kingarabian wrote:Alyono wrote:EC is a bit to the SW of the MU through 69 hours
however, it is well north of the 0Z EC
Through 96hrs
Now a hair S/SW of 00z.
you've got them backwards. 0Z SW of 12Z
Oops. Looks like it's east of the 00z run @ 144 hrs. MAYBE it's finally aligning with the GFS.
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- Kingarabian
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TXPZ29 KNES 191818
TCSENP
A. 19E (OLAF)
B. 19/1800Z
C. 10.0N
D. 138.2W
E. ONE/GOES-W
F. T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...OW EYE EMBEDDED IN B FOR AN E# OF 5.5. EYE SURROUNDED BY
W RING FOR +0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT. DT IS 6.0. MET IS 5.5 AND PT IS 6.0. FT
IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...VELASCO
TCSENP
A. 19E (OLAF)
B. 19/1800Z
C. 10.0N
D. 138.2W
E. ONE/GOES-W
F. T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...OW EYE EMBEDDED IN B FOR AN E# OF 5.5. EYE SURROUNDED BY
W RING FOR +0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT. DT IS 6.0. MET IS 5.5 AND PT IS 6.0. FT
IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...VELASCO
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- Kingarabian
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Re:
Alyono wrote:now ec flips for the 10 trillionth time. Was going east yesterday morning as well. No consistency. Deterministic models have been nearly worthless with this storm and I'm becoming quite irritated
Ensembles should be out in a couple of hours. So we'll see how much this run means.
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- Yellow Evan
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: OLAF - Hurricane
Code: Select all
EP, 19, 2015101918, , BEST, 0, 100N, 1382W, 115, 954, HU, 34, NEQ, 90, 120, 50, 70, 1010, 270, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, OLAF, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 033,
EP, 19, 2015101918, , BEST, 0, 100N, 1382W, 115, 954, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 50, 30, 40, 1010, 270, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, OLAF, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 033,
EP, 19, 2015101918, , BEST, 0, 100N, 1382W, 115, 954, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 15, 15, 1010, 270, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, OLAF, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 033,
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: OLAF - Hurricane
TAFB 6.0:
Code: Select all
201510191800, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1000N, 13820W, , 1, 115, 2, 948, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , 10, E, TAFB, JA, VI, 1, 6060 /////, , , GOES15, CSC, T, Very solid ring of white color on BD curver surround
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