Global model runs discussion

SETXWXLADY · #2061 Postby **SETXWXLADY** » Fri May 27, 2011 11:05 am

At the end of the EURO run it shows another low tracking east to west across the gulf in addition to the one in the Caribbean. Interesting that that may be another slow mover/developer like last year. Anyway, just one run so far on the gulf one. As always we shall see.

#2062 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri May 27, 2011 11:26 am

The 12z model package starts with GFS continuing to show the Western Caribbean development. It would be a slow proccess to develop according to this model.

96 hours

120 hours

192 hours

#2063 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri May 27, 2011 11:27 am

GFS .. 126 hours

#2064 Postby **srainhoutx** » Fri May 27, 2011 11:45 am

It appears to be a monsoonal trough setup to me, at the 850mb level. There are 'hints' of a TUTT traversing the Gulf later next week though on the 12Z GFS.

#2065 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri May 27, 2011 12:26 pm

Canadian continues to show it.

12z CMC

#2066 Postby **MiamiHurricanes10** » Fri May 27, 2011 12:37 pm

SETXWXLADY wrote:At the end of the EURO run it shows another low tracking east to west across the gulf in addition to the one in the Caribbean. Interesting that that may be another slow mover/developer like last year. Anyway, just one run so far on the gulf one. As always we shall see.

That's just an upper-low in the Gulf of Mexico advecting towards the west making a reflection at the 850mb level. The real trouble will be in the Caribbean as the subtropical jet lifts north, and the aforementioned upper-low helps to ventilate the area [Caribbean].

#2067 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri May 27, 2011 1:19 pm

12z NOGAPS

#2068 Postby **MiamiHurricanes10** » Fri May 27, 2011 1:44 pm

At 168 hours the ECMWF shows something similar to the GFS with the first feature remaining weak and broad moving towards the north and a secondary feature developing to the northeast of the first one.

#2069 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Fri May 27, 2011 7:01 pm

NHC is watching

#2070 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Fri May 27, 2011 8:20 pm

Fact789.............Check that date...April

#2071 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Fri May 27, 2011 8:35 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:Fact789.............Check that date...April

Thats an NHC mistake. April 28th was on a Thursday. That is a current graphic.

boca · #2072 Postby **boca** » Fri May 27, 2011 9:04 pm

Hey Fact do you have the link to the map you posted.

#2073 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Fri May 27, 2011 9:07 pm

boca wrote:Hey Fact do you have the link to the map you posted.

It is an experimental product from the NHC that is posted here every day at 8pm ET/00z

#2074 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri May 27, 2011 10:16 pm

NHC ... 72 hours

#2075 Postby **Rgv20** » Sat May 28, 2011 1:03 am

Nogaps still being happy with the Caribbean disturbance.

ROCK · #2076 Postby **ROCK** » Sat May 28, 2011 1:12 am

Still a few more days before we see something come together.IMO.really bare out there right now with some high shear.....models are all over this so hard to to go against them.....

#2077 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat May 28, 2011 5:43 am

The 00z package was bullish,except GFS that was the less agressive.See all of them here.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

#2078 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat May 28, 2011 11:55 am

Different from the SW Caribbean scenario,GFS on the very long range shows another development.But is lala-land.

Uploaded by imageshack.us

ROCK · #2079 Postby **ROCK** » Sat May 28, 2011 3:39 pm

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

wont be long now....potential is out there except along the gulf coast. By next week all of the GOM will have cat3-5 potential.

ROCK · #2080 Postby **ROCK** » Sat May 28, 2011 3:41 pm

however with shear like this you can forget about anything stacking....very hostile out there attm...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Global model runs discussion

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

Who is online