Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

The reliable models are for the most part quiet right now (Except the always bullish Canadian ) so dont expect tropical development anytime soon. Let's see when they will start to sniff something.

[ROCK]

CMC has backed off with a weak low or wave moving up the spine of FL....good news for you guys...

[boca]

That low would be good news for us Lake O is 4 ft below normal.

[srainhoutx]

CMC has backed off with a weak low or wave moving up the spine of FL....good news for you guys...

Actually the CMC shows a TC riding up the SE and MA Coast, but of course it's totally on it's own and has no other model support.

[SETXWXLADY]

CMC has backed off with a weak low or wave moving up the spine of FL....good news for you guys...

Actually the CMC shows a TC riding up the SE and MA Coast, but of course it's totally on it's own and has no other model support.

CMC long range was teasing us with rain last night. This last model run shows a storm moving west through the gulf at the end of the run. Who knows. One of these days it might be right.

[cycloneye]

Is only one model (NOGAPS) that has this strong wave near the Windward Islands,but you know the drill about only one model showing something.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[plasticup]

Although none develop any storms, all of the global models show the Bermuda high receding east. That is good news for the southeastern drought states, even if their ultimate source of moisture isn't apparent.

[Rgv20]

The ECMWF and GFS do not forecast any tropical development in the longer range but looking at the pattern setting up from next Tuesday (July12) thru Friday (July15) something could possibly develop in the Caribbean. Normally this time of year the Ridge (ex. 588mb height) would extend all the way south to the Caribbean normally providing subsidence.



And supporting this idea would be the MJO still going strong on that time frame.

ECMWF Ensembles


GEFS


Obviously nothing to get excited about but just something to watch in the coming days.

[cycloneye]

GFS shows the area near 40W moving thru the Southern Caribbean.

06z GFS Animation

[cycloneye]

GFS shows at 160 hours a weak low pressure emerging Africa and moving thru the Tropical Atlantic until around 40W,where it weakens. I haven't seen other models with this so far,so let's see if they join GFS, or that model stays alone.

GFS animation

[BigA]

GFS shows at 160 hours a weak low pressure emerging Africa and moving thru the Tropical Atlantic until around 40W,where it weakens. I haven't seen other models with this so far,so let's see if they join GFS, or that model stays alone.

GFS animation

It looks to me like the low it shows forming is a direct result of the wave coming off Africa right now.

[plasticup]

GFS shows at 160 hours a weak low pressure emerging Africa and moving thru the Tropical Atlantic until around 40W,where it weakens. I haven't seen other models with this so far,so let's see if they join GFS, or that model stays alone.

GFS animation

It looks to me like the low it shows forming is a direct result of the wave coming off Africa right now.

That's how I read it too. But the wave stays low and splats into French Guiana without development.

Actually, I don't see much excitement in any of the models, even at 300+ hours. Which is crazy because you can usually guarantee something ridiculous in the 300 hour models.

[ROCK]

some food for thought.....we are not into the heart of summer yet and look at the potential out there....the GOM is baking...

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Doesn't seem to make much difference how hot the gulf is. Hurricanes often blow up in the south or central part but almost always lose steam as they approach the coast. Dry air and shear always seem to do a number on most major storms. I know not all, but a good 90-95% of them. Not complaining becasue what we have had in the recent years was bad enough, just saying.

[KWT]

I suspect its the size that makes a difference, if you've got a small tight system its outer flow won't be big enough for it to drag in dry air from the land until its already too close and the damage is done, whilst the biggies like your bigger storms will be taking in dry air for a good many hours before landfall.

[cycloneye]

For what it's worth,GFS has a Tropical Storm in the SW Caribbean by 168 hours. It looks like monsoon origin as it comes from the EPAC. See animation here I haven't seem other models with this,but if anyone sees something,post them here.



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[ROCK]

For what it's worth,GFS has a Tropical Storm in the SW Caribbean by 168 hours. It looks like monsoon origin as it comes from the EPAC. See animation here I haven't seem other models with this,but if anyone sees something,post them here.



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NOGAPS has been showing the same thing but it was hard to figure out if it was the wave moving across or monsoon related...

[ROCK]

I suspect its the size that makes a difference, if you've got a small tight system its outer flow won't be big enough for it to drag in dry air from the land until its already too close and the damage is done, whilst the biggies like your bigger storms will be taking in dry air for a good many hours before landfall.

That is a good point but there are your one offs that are just so big that dont weaken...IE IKE who was gaining up until landfall. Ike was so big it filled the GOM. plus it never really turned north until after landfall. Now Rita had made her turn like Lily and headed north many hours before landfall. They were big also but because they were heading north the outflow sucked in massive amounts of dry air.

[ROCK]

0z CMC developes what the GFS sees in the EPAC.....

[cycloneye]

For a second run in a row,GFS develops a Tropical Storm in the SW Caribbean,but land interaction wont let it develop more,according to this model. It also has competition with a EPAC system on this 12z run. Will GFS be a loner or will other models follow?



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