Global model runs discussion

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BigB0882
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#2261 Postby BigB0882 » Sun Jul 17, 2011 5:00 pm

So the Euro shows something in the Gulf in 240 hours? Will be interesting to see if other models begin sniffing this out. I wont worry about the details but could be the beginning of the active part of the season ramping up.
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ROCK
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2262 Postby ROCK » Sun Jul 17, 2011 5:21 pm

EURO looks interesting...funny how I cant see that on the EURO site but it comes up on Allen's...
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#2263 Postby Rgv20 » Sun Jul 17, 2011 8:36 pm

It still looks like the pattern for the end of July to start August would favor development in the Atlantic and Caribbean. The ECMWF and GFS Ensembles forecast for the Ridge to lift northward thus allowing the ITCZ to lift northward too. It's not a guaranteed that something would form but the pattern would suggest it.

This is the ECMWF Ensembles 500mb Height 10 days from now.
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GFS Ensembles 500mb Height Anomalies 11 thru 15 days from now. All that blue color you see on the Atlantic and Caribbean is the lowering of 500mb height the cause being release of heat by showers and Thunder Storms.

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#2264 Postby KWT » Mon Jul 18, 2011 4:30 am

00z ECM develops a system again, clearly from a CV wave, probably the one thats exiting from Africa now, develops a closed circulation near the Bahamas then lifts northwards.

Its the same system as yesterdays 12z run but just a little more advanced in terms of development and so it heads north quicker.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2265 Postby GCANE » Mon Jul 18, 2011 5:21 am

00Z GFS, Euro, & FIM showing something passing thru the Leewards in 144 hrs.

Nice high-amp wave coming off Africa with a good moisture column.




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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2266 Postby GCANE » Mon Jul 18, 2011 6:59 am

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#2267 Postby BigA » Mon Jul 18, 2011 7:09 am

The 06 GFS continues to show strong vorticity entering the Caribbean in a week or so. Definitely worth a watch.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2268 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Mon Jul 18, 2011 7:23 am

Must agree. CV season might be starting a little early. :eek:
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2269 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Jul 18, 2011 12:17 pm

the last season where there was an early cape verde system was 2008, and people around houston know what happened in 2008
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2270 Postby GCANE » Mon Jul 18, 2011 1:32 pm

12Z CMC spinning it up in 36 hrs, around 15N 33W, as a borderline warm-core with relatively high surface-pressure.


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#2271 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon Jul 18, 2011 11:34 pm

Lots of talk around North Texas about how this summer compares to 1980 and 1998.

Both of those years had a big Cape Verde storm - Allen in 1980 and Georges in 1998.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2272 Postby ROCK » Tue Jul 19, 2011 12:38 am

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP240.gif

The GFS is starting to look like it has problems....it wont even sniff out develope even in the long range. Here is the 12Z Euro at 240hr...GOM and maybe a NGOM issue...
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2273 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 19, 2011 7:07 am

ROCK wrote:http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP240.gif

The GFS is starting to look like it has problems....it wont even sniff out develope even in the long range. Here is the 12Z Euro at 240hr...GOM and maybe a NGOM issue...


Yes,the runs of GFS now go to the first days of August and doesn't have anything close to develop.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2274 Postby ronjon » Tue Jul 19, 2011 7:59 am

cycloneye wrote:
ROCK wrote:http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP240.gif

The GFS is starting to look like it has problems....it wont even sniff out develope even in the long range. Here is the 12Z Euro at 240hr...GOM and maybe a NGOM issue...


Yes,the runs of GFS now go to the first days of August and doesn't have anything close to develop.



Actually, Luis, if you look at the 850 mb vorticity run from 00Z GFS it shows a couple of systems developing off Africa. Just not the one at 35W now.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfstropical850mbVortSLPGFSLoop.html
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2275 Postby Javlin » Tue Jul 19, 2011 9:25 am

wrong thread
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2276 Postby plasticup » Tue Jul 19, 2011 4:20 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:the last season where there was an early cape verde system was 2008, and people around houston know what happened in 2008

2008 also saw Dean, the most impressive Cape Verde storm in recent years. That thing was a beast.

They tend to be my favorite systems, because of the long tracks and meaningful steering.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2277 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jul 19, 2011 4:22 pm

plasticup wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:the last season where there was an early cape verde system was 2008, and people around houston know what happened in 2008

2008 also saw Dean, the most impressive Cape Verde storm in recent years. That thing was a beast.

They tend to be my favorite systems, because of the long tracks and meaningful steering.


Dean was 2007
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2278 Postby Macrocane » Tue Jul 19, 2011 4:24 pm

plasticup wrote:2008 also saw Dean, the most impressive Cape Verde storm in recent years. That thing was a beast.

They tend to be my favorite systems, because of the long tracks and meaningful steering.


:roll: err Nope, Dean was on 2007, the last cat 5 Cape Verde hurricane, a few weeks later there was Felix the most recent cat 5 in the Atlantic though I don't think it can be considered a Cape Verde hurricane.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2279 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 20, 2011 6:01 pm

Keep in mind that this is way way long range.

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#2280 Postby dwsqos2 » Thu Jul 21, 2011 12:14 am

The 0z gfs is still pretty somnolescent.
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