ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

Latest Shear Analysis still shows 20kts of Northerly shear affecting Joaquin ATM.

[CrazyC83]

Hints of an eye on IR satellite? (From @Ants_SNEWeather on Twitter)

[Aric Dunn]

Convection wrapping around to the north side.. curved band all the around from north around to se... still quickly organizing..

[TheStormExpert]

IMO this has to be at least a 60kt TS right now.

[Aric Dunn]

Hints of an eye on IR satellite? (From @Ants_SNEWeather on Twitter)

its quite likely that might be the first hints of one.. pretty much exactly where the center is.

[CrazyC83]

If that is the center, it is probably closer to 25.7 or 25.8N north.

I'd go with 60 kt for now in terms of intensity.

[Aric Dunn]

If that is the center, it is probably closer to 25.7 or 25.8N north.

I'd go with 60 kt for now in terms of intensity.

70 is good. but could be slightly stronger.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 SEP 2015 Time : 224500 UTC
Lat : 25:58:39 N Lon : 71:06:51 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 / 999.2mb/ 41.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 2.8 3.5

Center Temp : -76.5C Cloud Region Temp : -71.0C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

[gatorcane]

and we all that the ECMWF was crazy with it's forecast for rapid strengthening. It was the first model that predicted it and it looks like it may verify.

[gatorcane]

I am guessing hurricane by sunrise:



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Aric Dunn]

Convection building nw against the shear very rapidly now..


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[Hammy]

Nice westward bulge in the convection over the last two hours, could be a sign of wrapping.

[TheStormExpert]

It's getting that look!

[Aric Dunn]

I am guessing hurricane by sunrise:



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I would go with pretty close if not now.. moment recon gets there it will probably be 80 +

[Aric Dunn]

Nice westward bulge in the convection over the last two hours, could be a sign of wrapping.

the sign of wrapping starts hours ago from both recon and multiple microwave images.

[Bocadude85]

I'm having a hard time finding any hurricane that hit the mid Atlantic from the west after moving northeast like some of the models are showing. Anyone know of any?

[blp]

Very interesting steering maps. The stronger system will likely dive SW. The weaker it will stay west to WNW. Right now here is the progression with last recon position at 990mb.



Now look at the steering:

If stays the same


If it gets much stronger. Look out.

[gatorcane]

I am guessing hurricane by sunrise:



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I would go with pretty close if not now.. moment recon gets there it will probably be 80 +

Yeah could be a hurricane sooner. This thing is really intensifying quickly.

[drewschmaltz]

blp you touched on exactly what I was going to ask. With the current setup fill in the blanks:

A stronger system will head ________ vs a weaker system heading __________ .

If I understand correctly that would be SW vs WNW.

So, my second question is how far south would this have to get to shift west to, say, Florida?

[Aric Dunn]

Taking a look at the IR here focusing on the motion of each convective burst its pretty clear the band has wrapped around to the north and likely NW side now. with convection building west quickly.

15 image loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html