ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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TheStormExpert

#501 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Sep 29, 2015 6:55 pm

Latest Shear Analysis still shows 20kts of Northerly shear affecting Joaquin ATM.

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#502 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 29, 2015 6:57 pm

Hints of an eye on IR satellite? (From @Ants_SNEWeather on Twitter)

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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#503 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 29, 2015 6:58 pm

Convection wrapping around to the north side.. curved band all the around from north around to se... still quickly organizing..

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#504 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Sep 29, 2015 6:59 pm

:uarrow: IMO this has to be at least a 60kt TS right now.
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Re:

#505 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 29, 2015 6:59 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Hints of an eye on IR satellite? (From @Ants_SNEWeather on Twitter)

Image



its quite likely that might be the first hints of one.. pretty much exactly where the center is.
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#506 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 29, 2015 7:00 pm

If that is the center, it is probably closer to 25.7 or 25.8N north.

I'd go with 60 kt for now in terms of intensity.
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Re:

#507 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 29, 2015 7:02 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:If that is the center, it is probably closer to 25.7 or 25.8N north.

I'd go with 60 kt for now in terms of intensity.


70 is good. but could be slightly stronger.
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#508 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 29, 2015 7:03 pm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 SEP 2015 Time : 224500 UTC
Lat : 25:58:39 N Lon : 71:06:51 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 / 999.2mb/ 41.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 2.8 3.5

Center Temp : -76.5C Cloud Region Temp : -71.0C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
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#509 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 29, 2015 7:03 pm

and we all that the ECMWF was crazy with it's forecast for rapid strengthening. It was the first model that predicted it and it looks like it may verify.
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#510 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 29, 2015 7:07 pm

I am guessing hurricane by sunrise:

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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#511 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 29, 2015 7:08 pm

Convection building nw against the shear very rapidly now..


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
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#512 Postby Hammy » Tue Sep 29, 2015 7:08 pm

Nice westward bulge in the convection over the last two hours, could be a sign of wrapping.
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#513 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Sep 29, 2015 7:10 pm

It's getting that look!
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Re:

#514 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 29, 2015 7:10 pm

gatorcane wrote:I am guessing hurricane by sunrise:

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I would go with pretty close if not now.. moment recon gets there it will probably be 80 +
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Re:

#515 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 29, 2015 7:11 pm

Hammy wrote:Nice westward bulge in the convection over the last two hours, could be a sign of wrapping.



the sign of wrapping starts hours ago from both recon and multiple microwave images.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#516 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Sep 29, 2015 7:11 pm

I'm having a hard time finding any hurricane that hit the mid Atlantic from the west after moving northeast like some of the models are showing. Anyone know of any?
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#517 Postby blp » Tue Sep 29, 2015 7:14 pm

Very interesting steering maps. The stronger system will likely dive SW. The weaker it will stay west to WNW. Right now here is the progression with last recon position at 990mb.

Image

Now look at the steering:

If stays the same
Image

If it gets much stronger. Look out.
Image
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Re: Re:

#518 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 29, 2015 7:15 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
gatorcane wrote:I am guessing hurricane by sunrise:

Image

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I would go with pretty close if not now.. moment recon gets there it will probably be 80 +


Yeah could be a hurricane sooner. This thing is really intensifying quickly.
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#519 Postby drewschmaltz » Tue Sep 29, 2015 7:18 pm

blp you touched on exactly what I was going to ask. With the current setup fill in the blanks:

A stronger system will head ________ vs a weaker system heading __________ .

If I understand correctly that would be SW vs WNW.

So, my second question is how far south would this have to get to shift west to, say, Florida?
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#520 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 29, 2015 7:19 pm

Taking a look at the IR here focusing on the motion of each convective burst its pretty clear the band has wrapped around to the north and likely NW side now. with convection building west quickly.

15 image loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
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