Global model runs discussion

[Yellow Evan]

It is mid-July, if there was not a lot of dry air in the MDR I would be quite worried and for a completely different reason

It's more than normal though.

[SFLcane]

57 Yep which could pose problems once they make it into a more favorable environment near 60-70w. Also sst's across the MDR have somewhat recovered last few weeks. Should be ok come mid-aug when real season starts. Also sal tends to peak around this time so nothing strange there.

[gatorcane]

Well this large area of convection over Africa is likely associated with the wave that some of the global models thought might form an area of low pressure SW of the Cape Verde islands down the road. Models are not even showing a closed low forming out of this any longer, however, with the latest ECMWF solution showing a strong wave signature traversing what still appears to be a very hostile MDR.

Far East Atlantic IR saved image:


12Z ECMWF 144 hours:

[weatherwindow]

Forgive me if this question has already been posted, but does anyone know if there have ever been two or more consecutive "extremely dud" (a.k.a.: last season) seasons in the recorded history of hurricane seasons???

Several series of consecutive multiple "duds"....1981, 82, 83, 84...93, 94...and many others since 1851...Many of these very quiet seasons are associated with the negative phase of the AMO(thermohaline circulation) and/or El Ninos...However, as evidenced by 2012/2013, they are not restricted to only those backround conditions....Grtz from KW, Rich

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/

[ninel conde]

Forgive me if this question has already been posted, but does anyone know if there have ever been two or more consecutive "extremely dud" (a.k.a.: last season) seasons in the recorded history of hurricane seasons???

Several series of consecutive multiple "duds"....1981, 82, 83, 84...93, 94...and many others since 1851...Many of these very quiet seasons are associated with the negative phase of the AMO(thermohaline circulation) and/or El Ninos...However, as evidenced by 2012/2013, they are not restricted to only those backround conditions....Grtz from KW, Rich

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/

i would add 1971-1978 as a long string of "duds"

[Hammy]

I wouldn't exactly consider 1971, 1974, or 1975 duds, considering they were all fairly active and even had a few major storms landfalling, including Fifi in 1974 which killed nearly 10,000, or even 1981, which had a good number of strong hurricanes.

[tolakram]

Let's get back on topic please.

[cycloneye]

Not forming into a TC but if what ECMWF pans out, a good rain event would arrive towards the islands for late next week that some of them need badly including PR.

[hurricanehunter69]

GFS 18z showin a little somthin somthin.....? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... =&ps=model

[HurricaneFan]

Is that pouch 4L just East of the Islands on the ECMWF 10 days from now?
That should hit the Islands in the 2 next days(on Monday,July 28th) on that graphic if it pans out?

[cycloneye]

Is that pouch 4L just East of the Islands on the ECMWF 10 days from now?That should hit the Islands in the 2 next days(on Monday,July 28th) on that graphic if it pans out?

04L may be the one but is too early to know.Let a few days pass and we will have a better idea if the models start to pick it. We need a soaker here to aliviate or end the drought.

[blp]

Not saying it will happen but the CFS continues to advertise some action for August. Looks like conditions may become conducive for a few storms to develop out of the MDR.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=noat&MODELL=cfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=396&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&LOOP=1&RES=0

[PTrackerLA]

That CFS run is interesting. Is it ever remotely correct 30 days out?

[Hurricaneman]

That CFS run is interesting. Is it ever remotely correct 30 days out?

shows something crossing florida around Melbourne on the 17th of August which is really dubious in that range at best but one thing to take from it though is that the MDR is forecast from the CFS to become a lot more favorable as we come to the peak of hurricane season and definitely tons more favorable than last year so IMO around the late part of the month or Early August need to be watched if the CFS is even remotely close

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[TheStormExpert]

That CFS run is interesting. Is it ever remotely correct 30 days out?

shows something crossing florida around Melbourne on the 17th of August which is really dubious in that range at best but one thing to take from it though is that the MDR is forecast from the CFS to become a lot more favorable as we come to the peak of hurricane season and definitely tons more favorable than last year so IMO around the late part of the month or Early August need to be watched if the CFS is even remotely close

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

My question is did the CFS show it being active like this last year, and how reliable is the CFS this far out to start getting ideas?

[Hurricaneman]

That CFS run is interesting. Is it ever remotely correct 30 days out?

shows something crossing florida around Melbourne on the 17th of August which is really dubious in that range at best but one thing to take from it though is that the MDR is forecast from the CFS to become a lot more favorable as we come to the peak of hurricane season and definitely tons more favorable than last year so IMO around the late part of the month or Early August need to be watched if the CFS is even remotely close

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

My question is did the CFS show it being active like this last year, and how reliable is the CFS this far out to start getting ideas?

It was pretty much quiet last year but it pretty much is quite off on tracks and stuff like that but does show a possible pattern of better favorability around early to mid August

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[blp]

My question is did the CFS show it being active like this last year, and how reliable is the CFS this far out to start getting ideas?

Last year it did not have nowhere near the level of activity you are seeing now, so it did good with predicting the slow season. I have looked at the CFS often the past several years and in IMO it does help with picking out patterns. For instance, it was helpful in showing the pattern of troughs in the MDR during 2012. So you need to take CFS as a possible predictor of pattern and activity levels but not for a specific area of development.

[Yellow Evan]

My question is did the CFS show it being active like this last year, and how reliable is the CFS this far out to start getting ideas?

Last year it did not have nowhere near the level of activity you are seeing now, so it did good with predicting the slow season. I have looked at the CFS often the past several years and in IMO it does help with picking out patterns. For instance, it was helpful in showing the pattern of troughs in the MDR during 2012. So you need to take CFS as a possible predictor of pattern and activity levels but not for a specific area of development.

How did it do in 2009?

I think it's good in the EPAC for such long range.

[TheStormExpert]

My question is did the CFS show it being active like this last year, and how reliable is the CFS this far out to start getting ideas?

Last year it did not have nowhere near the level of activity you are seeing now, so it did good with predicting the slow season. I have looked at the CFS often the past several years and in IMO it does help with picking out patterns. For instance, it was helpful in showing the pattern of troughs in the MDR during 2012. So you need to take CFS as a possible predictor of pattern and activity levels but not for a specific area of development.

What is the pattern like now?

[blp]

How did it do in 2009?

I think it's good in the EPAC for such long range.

Don't know, I did not look at it back then.