ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Appearance looked quite messy one hour ago.

[GCANE]

Interesting to say the least.
The 200mb vort from the trough looks to be breaking up.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[jlauderdal]

Were the models expecting this RI that has happened in the last 24 hours?

If I remember correctly storms this small and strong can possibly do whatever they want to a certain extent and not go as the models show. I could see this continue on a more Westerly path instead of making such a sharp turn North.

this isnt considered a small storm..very intense storms can pump ridges but lets be clear they dont just clear their own path meandering around wherever...at the end of the day they are still steered by ridges and troughs

[jlauderdal]

https://s14.postimg.org/a86pxv8a9/vis0_lalo.gif
Appearance looked quite messy one hour ago.

huh, the system is in good shape despite sw shear..its not a cat 5 in appearance but it looks healthy and Alonyo has been very consistent that it will become a major later this weekend

[GCANE]

Interesting to say the least.
The 200mb vort from the trough looks to be breaking up.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Very likely the convection south of Cuba and north of Nicaragua is helping to break this up.
Key thing to watch today if we see more convection develop around the trough; especially if there is strong, afternoon popups over Cuba.
It could alter the forecasted track of Matthew.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animated.gif

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Tend to think there is some shear and dry air affecting the NW side of the storm.

[otowntiger]

Interesting to say the least.
The 200mb vort from the trough looks to be breaking up.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Very likely the convection south of Cuba and north of Nicaragua is helping to break this up.
Key thing to watch today if we see more convection develop around the trough; especially if there is strong, afternoon popups over Cuba.
It could alter the forecasted track of Matthew.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animated.gif

In what way, do you think?

[tolakram]

water vapor loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-68&info=wv&zoom=4&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=wv3.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray&map=county

IR loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-68&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=gray&map=county

[northjaxpro]

Not good for Jamaica!

it was never good for Jamaica. The forecast I issued last evening was 110 kts near eastern Jamaica. While I do not expect much more RI in the short term, as it approaches Jamaica, this may end up quite a bit stronger than the 110 kts I was forecasting

Unfortunately, I completely agree with you. Matthew will be likely a.powerful Category 4 hurricane when he crosses Jamaica. My prayers and thoughts to all all those people there. It will be bad there.

All over that region the worst possible scenario looks to be realized. The Bahamas will also take devastating impacts from Matthew. It is just going to be utter devastation.

Matthew may get within as close as within 100 miles of the Florida East Coast if the ridge north of Matthew ends up stronger than initially forecasted. We have to watch it extremely close with the model runs during these next five days.

A storm with this massive size and intensity does not have to have a direct landfall with the eye of the storm to bring significant impacts. This is why the west shift with the models is very alarming. It may be possible that Matthew may get close enough to the Florida East Coast to give it definite impacts of tropical or gale force winds and squalls. The surf and beach erosion alone is just going to be unbelievable potentially with Matthew getting within 100 -150 miles of the coast.

Every intricate intricateor subtle changes with the synoptic pattern could make huge differences with regards to the track of Matthew over the next 5 days. Long days ahead and once again my prayers to all who will be impacted by this monster tropical cyclone.

[USTropics]

GMI pass from about 50 minutes ago:


Compared to an SSMI pass from 3 hours ago:

[tigerz3030]

Not good for Jamaica!

it was never good for Jamaica. The forecast I issued last evening was 110 kts near eastern Jamaica. While I do not expect much more RI in the short term, as it approaches Jamaica, this may end up quite a bit stronger than the 110 kts I was forecasting

Unfortunately, I completely agree with you. Matthew will be likely a.powerful Category 4 hurricane when he crosses Jamaica. My prayers and thoughts to all all those people there. It will be bad there.

All over that region the worst possible scenario looks to be realized. The Bahamas will also take devastating impacts from Matthew. It is just going to be utter devastation.

Matthew may get within as close as within 100 miles of the Florida East Coast if the ridge north of Matthew ends up stronger than initially forecasted. We have to watch it extremely close with the model runs during these next five days.

A storm with this massive size and intensity does not have to have a direct landfall with the eye of the storm for a significant impacts. This is why whythe west shift with the models are very alarming. It may be possible that Matthew may get close enough to the Florida East Coast to give it definite impacts of tropical or gale force winds and squalls. The surf and beach erosion alone is just going to be unbelievable potentially with Matthew getting within 100 -150 miles of the coast.

Every intricate intricateor subtle changes with the synoptic pattern could make huge differences with regards to the track of Matthew over the next 5 days. Long days ahead and once again my prayers to all who will be impacted by this monster tropical cyclone.

Good morning NJax! I've been following for a few days now and most the models have been creeping west. Some on here have said the stronger Matthew gets early on the more west it goes. Well since that is happening, in my amateur opinion, do you see this thing riding the spine of the FL peninsula?

[wxman57]

Looks like an eye is starting to pop out on satellite imagery. Models & ensembles appear to have shifted a little eastward overnight (particularly ensembles). Still can't give FL the all-clear, but I think that Matthew will pass far enough offshore to keep all TS winds offshore.

[Kazmit]

GMI pass from about 50 minutes ago:


Compared to an SSMI pass from 3 hours ago:

Banding is a lot better now. Much more impressive.

[Blown Away]

it was never good for Jamaica. The forecast I issued last evening was 110 kts near eastern Jamaica. While I do not expect much more RI in the short term, as it approaches Jamaica, this may end up quite a bit stronger than the 110 kts I was forecasting

Unfortunately, I completely agree with you. Matthew will be likely a.powerful Category 4 hurricane when he crosses Jamaica. My prayers and thoughts to all all those people there. It will be bad there.

All over that region the worst possible scenario looks to be realized. The Bahamas will also take devastating impacts from Matthew. It is just going to be utter devastation.

Matthew may get within as close as within 100 miles of the Florida East Coast if the ridge north of Matthew ends up stronger than initially forecasted. We have to watch it extremely close with the model runs during these next five days.

A storm with this massive size and intensity does not have to have a direct landfall with the eye of the storm for a significant impacts. This is why whythe west shift with the models are very alarming. It may be possible that Matthew may get close enough to the Florida East Coast to give it definite impacts of tropical or gale force winds and squalls. The surf and beach erosion alone is just going to be unbelievable potentially with Matthew getting within 100 -150 miles of the coast.

Every intricate intricateor subtle changes with the synoptic pattern could make huge differences with regards to the track of Matthew over the next 5 days. Long days ahead and once again my prayers to all who will be impacted by this monster tropical cyclone.

Good morning NJax! I've been following for a few days now and most the models have been creeping west. Some on here have said the stronger Matthew gets early on the more west it goes. Well since that is happening, in my amateur opinion, do you see this thing riding the spine of the FL peninsula?

No reason to think that ATM... Watch closely, but projected to pass a few hundred miles E of Florida...

[tatertawt24]

Eye shows up really well on shortwave.

[Nimbus]

oh oh..

[northjaxpro]

I don't see Matthew getting that close to Florida for a direct.landfall. I think it will stay off shore but it could get close enough to give some of the East Coast of Florida with tropical storm-force wind gusts and even some outer rain bands and squalls from Matthew. Beach erosion and heavy surf is a.guarantee.

[USTropics]

Latest enhanced IR images with different shades:

[Nimbus]

These weather models are essentially just a branch pruning process.
You start off with a huge base of possible tracks and intensities and end up with a single correct solution.
Error can be several orders higher ^ as the day range extends.

When will we close to an accurate forecast for Florida and the east coast??

[NDG]

This makes more sense now, windshear is now analyzed to be near 10-15 knots over Matthew, there is no way it was near 20 knots last night when it started its rapid intensification.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... om=Z&time=