
Appearance looked quite messy one hour ago.
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Blinhart wrote:Were the models expecting this RI that has happened in the last 24 hours?
If I remember correctly storms this small and strong can possibly do whatever they want to a certain extent and not go as the models show. I could see this continue on a more Westerly path instead of making such a sharp turn North.
Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:https://s14.postimg.org/a86pxv8a9/vis0_lalo.gif
Appearance looked quite messy one hour ago.
GCANE wrote:Interesting to say the least.
The 200mb vort from the trough looks to be breaking up.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=
GCANE wrote:GCANE wrote:Interesting to say the least.
The 200mb vort from the trough looks to be breaking up.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=
Very likely the convection south of Cuba and north of Nicaragua is helping to break this up.
Key thing to watch today if we see more convection develop around the trough; especially if there is strong, afternoon popups over Cuba.
It could alter the forecasted track of Matthew.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animated.gif
Alyono wrote:sponger wrote:Not good for Jamaica!
it was never good for Jamaica. The forecast I issued last evening was 110 kts near eastern Jamaica. While I do not expect much more RI in the short term, as it approaches Jamaica, this may end up quite a bit stronger than the 110 kts I was forecasting
northjaxpro wrote:Alyono wrote:sponger wrote:Not good for Jamaica!
it was never good for Jamaica. The forecast I issued last evening was 110 kts near eastern Jamaica. While I do not expect much more RI in the short term, as it approaches Jamaica, this may end up quite a bit stronger than the 110 kts I was forecasting
Unfortunately, I completely agree with you. Matthew will be likely a.powerful Category 4 hurricane when he crosses Jamaica. My prayers and thoughts to all all those people there. It will be bad there.
All over that region the worst possible scenario looks to be realized. The Bahamas will also take devastating impacts from Matthew. It is just going to be utter devastation.
Matthew may get within as close as within 100 miles of the Florida East Coast if the ridge north of Matthew ends up stronger than initially forecasted. We have to watch it extremely close with the model runs during these next five days.
A storm with this massive size and intensity does not have to have a direct landfall with the eye of the storm for a significant impacts. This is why whythe west shift with the models are very alarming. It may be possible that Matthew may get close enough to the Florida East Coast to give it definite impacts of tropical or gale force winds and squalls. The surf and beach erosion alone is just going to be unbelievable potentially with Matthew getting within 100 -150 miles of the coast.
Every intricate intricateor subtle changes with the synoptic pattern could make huge differences with regards to the track of Matthew over the next 5 days. Long days ahead and once again my prayers to all who will be impacted by this monster tropical cyclone.
USTropics wrote:GMI pass from about 50 minutes ago:
Compared to an SSMI pass from 3 hours ago:
tigerz3030 wrote:northjaxpro wrote:Alyono wrote:
it was never good for Jamaica. The forecast I issued last evening was 110 kts near eastern Jamaica. While I do not expect much more RI in the short term, as it approaches Jamaica, this may end up quite a bit stronger than the 110 kts I was forecasting
Unfortunately, I completely agree with you. Matthew will be likely a.powerful Category 4 hurricane when he crosses Jamaica. My prayers and thoughts to all all those people there. It will be bad there.
All over that region the worst possible scenario looks to be realized. The Bahamas will also take devastating impacts from Matthew. It is just going to be utter devastation.
Matthew may get within as close as within 100 miles of the Florida East Coast if the ridge north of Matthew ends up stronger than initially forecasted. We have to watch it extremely close with the model runs during these next five days.
A storm with this massive size and intensity does not have to have a direct landfall with the eye of the storm for a significant impacts. This is why whythe west shift with the models are very alarming. It may be possible that Matthew may get close enough to the Florida East Coast to give it definite impacts of tropical or gale force winds and squalls. The surf and beach erosion alone is just going to be unbelievable potentially with Matthew getting within 100 -150 miles of the coast.
Every intricate intricateor subtle changes with the synoptic pattern could make huge differences with regards to the track of Matthew over the next 5 days. Long days ahead and once again my prayers to all who will be impacted by this monster tropical cyclone.
Good morning NJax! I've been following for a few days now and most the models have been creeping west. Some on here have said the stronger Matthew gets early on the more west it goes. Well since that is happening, in my amateur opinion, do you see this thing riding the spine of the FL peninsula?
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest