ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[centuryv58]

remember until the magical upper low thats supposed to form in the eastern gulf materializes its all fair game roughly in 48 hours that feature should begin to show up helping to drive it northward. if not or its farther west then matthew will also go farther west

I'll take magic about now.

[p1nheadlarry]

You can see shockwaves in the WV loops (speed it up). Wondering if this is from Matthew or the Kelvin Wave.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=29&lon=-80&info=wv&zoom=4&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=wv1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=gray&map=none

Likely gravity waves from Matthew. Fairly typical with strong convection.

Wait, the same waves Einstein predicted that we just confirmed six-seven months ago?

[SouthFLTropics]

Just a couple of benchmarks to keep in mind here for any potential future impacts to the East Coast of Florida. Coming from an old school native Floridian guy like myself, back in the day we used to watch where a storm would impact to get a feel for the potential impacts down the road. For storms coming from the South the first benchmark would be Jamaica and the second would be Andros Island. If it passes left of either or both of those then the chance for an East Coast Florida impact go up. If it is to the right of either of them then chances are down. Split the middle and then it's 50/50. I'll be watching very carefully to see where this impacts Jamaica.

[tolakram]

Plane now reporting a closed wall.

[RL3AO]

You can see shockwaves in the WV loops (speed it up). Wondering if this is from Matthew or the Kelvin Wave.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=29&lon=-80&info=wv&zoom=4&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=wv1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=gray&map=none

Likely gravity waves from Matthew. Fairly typical with strong convection.

Wait, the same waves Einstein predicted that we just confirmed six-seven months ago?

Not those gravity waves. These are waves that can form when you have a stable layer (which in this case would be the tropopause). They're quite evident when you see strong convection in 1-min satellite imagery.

[GCANE]

4C Warm Core from the latest Vortex Message

Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 17:55Z

A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 17:35:58Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 13°32'N 71°16'W (13.5333N 71.2667W)
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 961mb (28.38 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,377m (7,799ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,659m (8,724ft)

[Wakeknight]

Thought this was interesting...

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/781913169426079744

[RL3AO]

Thought this was interesting...

The cutoff low in the GOM is an important feature. Worth sampling the area.

[Wakeknight]

Thought this was interesting...

The cutoff low in the GOM is an important feature. Worth sampling the area.

Does the need to sample reflect a lack of confidence in the modeling of this low?

[Aric Dunn]

109kt FL

[KWT]

I think at this point the more data the better for the models which have clearly struggled with this system so far. Any small trend west from here is going to have big implications for the real life weather in E.Florida, landfall or not.

[Aric Dunn]

and 956mb with 45kt.. missed the center looks like pressure has fallen 4 or 5 mb in the last 45 minutes.

[TheStormExpert]

This is very telling.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/781915400690774018

[Michele B]

It seems to me storms in the Caribbean DO tend to gain strength to Cat 4 or 5, and then generally back off after a day or two. I'm not so much worried about its strength right now, it's still pretty far away from any landmass.

That said, I'm sending up prayers for those folks in Jamaica. Hope it doesn't do a landfall there.....my God.....

[Buck]

Wow, the Bahamas seeing such a serious threat almost exactly 1 year after Joaquin... crazy.

Also, surprised at how conservative the NHC has been with forecasting intensification. I get being cautious and not forecasting it to be stronger than necessary so as not to cause panic, etc... but they've really been under. Interested to see what the discussion at 5PM is.

[Aric Dunn]

what is recon doing ?>

they are just flying around in the eyewall.. in circles lol

[Michele B]

No. Means more strengthening.

I know that. Should have worded it differently but the words "not good" should be enough to imply it's strengthening.

they should, but as strange as it may sound to people like you and I who live in hurricane zones, there are posters who are actually disappointed
if a storm doesn't strengthen.

I sincerely hope this statement wasn't directed at me. I was simply clarifying what I THOUGHT I understood from this post. I mean, I thought Jax was saying it wasn't looking good for the hurricane....

Sorry if I gave the impression that I am happy that it's strengthening, cause I live in hurricane-land, too and I am NOT going to be happy to see it continue to struggle.

I'm new around here, guys, so I guess I don't always catch the nuances of your posts!

[tolakram]

Looks like it's stalled for the moment, little movement in the last hour.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-71&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=gray&map=county

[ronyan]

what is recon doing ?>

they are just flying around in the eyewall.. in circles lol

Maintaining altitude I hope...

[jdjaguar]

I know that. Should have worded it differently but the words "not good" should be enough to imply it's strengthening.

they should, but as strange as it may sound to people like you and I who live in hurricane zones, there are posters who are actually disappointed
if a storm doesn't strengthen.

I sincerely hope this statement wasn't directed at me. I was simply clarifying what I THOUGHT I understood from this post. I mean, I thought Jax was saying it wasn't looking for for the hurricane....

Sorry if I gave the impression that I am happy that it's strengthening, cause I live in hurricane-land, too and I am NOT going to be happy to see it continue to struggle.

I'm new around here, guys, so I guess I don't always catch the nuances of your posts!

that statement was in no way directed at you, or any specific individual. just something I've noticed when storms start approaching CONUS.
It has been a long time since we had a major threaten our coasts.
Peace