ATL: JULIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[LarryWx]

Larry, for the past couple of days the Atlantic has been under areas of subsidence. This coupled with your dry air is likely the culprit. The two are intertwined. Sinking air is not likely to maintain strong convection on a consistent basis, shear finally did them at the end.

Thanks, Ntxw! I'm really trying to learn from 93L (and hope some others who followed it also do) since it was followed so closely in this thread for the last few days. I don't recall anyone posting about 93L over the weekend even once pointing out subsidence and wonder why. I suspect the reason is that nobody posting in this thread, including myself, thought about subsidence. Is that most easily followed by looking at SAL, the MJO, or something else? The funny thing is the SAL maps showed SAL was largely absent where 93L was over the weekend. Also, the MJO was in the often favorable within the circle position. Nobody pointed out either SAL or MJO being unfavorable over the weekend. I'm just trying to learn and am not doubting you about subsidence. All of these factors make for such interesting discussion, especially since the tropics remain so unpredictable. Even the mighty Euro had a decent closed surface low hit FL tomorrow on one run.

[tpr1967]

Nice Low level swirl just n of Nassau this morning on visible. But again wind shear pretty strong.

[cycloneye]

Disorganized shower activity continues in association with a
disturbance near the northwestern Bahamas. This system does not
have a closed surface circulation, and conditions are not conducive
for significant development while the disturbance moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. However,
locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the central and
northwestern Bahamas today, and portions of the Florida peninsula on
Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

[northjaxpro]

Okay I'm confused is this now reactivated as in that's 93L because the title of this thread still says ex-93L.

[Hammy]

No way this doesn't have a closed circulation given the cloud motion--there's a pretty solid west-east inflow to the south.

[cycloneye]

Invest reactivated.

AL, 93, 2016091218, , BEST, 0, 257N, 785W, 25, 1014, DB

[gatorcane]

Maybe some broad spin looking at NWS Miami radar this afternoon:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[shortwave]

sse wind at andros island.. pressure 29.96

[gatorcane]

I see 93L imagery is getting reactivated on NHC site. It does look like it might be trying to organize but a little too late before it moves inland into Florida.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

[LarryWx]

Never say never in the tropics, but I think it is too late due to strong shear. Is this any more organized than yesterday?

[gatorcane]

Never say never in the tropics, but I think it is too late due to strong shear. Is this any more organized than yesterday?

Well I see more low-level vorticity and some more convection on the east side, so looks a bit more organized but still heavily sheared:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[LarryWx]

Never say never in the tropics, but I think it is too late due to strong shear. Is this any more organized than yesterday?

Well I see more low-level vorticity and some more convection on the east side, so looks a bit more organized but still heavily sheared:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Thanks, gator. What surprises me is that they took down the invest yesterday, when shear was low, and just put it back up today when shear has been high. But they're the pros and have their reasons.

Yeah, I see it but even the CMC has given up on this. Regardless, hopefully, many of you FL guys are going to get some decent rains from this to help with the drought. I'd think the east coast would be favored.

[gatorcane]

saved loop:

[jlauderdal]

Never say never in the tropics, but I think it is too late due to strong shear. Is this any more organized than yesterday?

Well I see more low-level vorticity and some more convection on the east side, so looks a bit more organized but still heavily sheared:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Thanks, gator. What surprises me is that they took down the invest yesterday, when shear was low, and just put it back up today when shear has been high. But they're the pros and have their reasons.

Yeah, I see it but even the CMC has given up on this. Regardless, hopefully, many of you FL guys are going to get some decent rains from this to help with the drought. I'd think the east coast would be favored.

it has convection and looks a little better..invest seems appropriate...i wouldn't expect more than a very weak low moving through florida..looks wet most of the week ahead and behind its passage...development chance to a TD .005

[gatorcane]

Quite a pressure drop at Settlement Point in Grand Bahama:

[rickybobby]

Today through Wednesday Daytona is suppose to get 5.6 inches of rain.

[rickybobby]

It is pouring in Port Orange since 5:30 and the wind is blowing pretty good.

[JaxGator]

Latest models show over 6 inches of rain so far over most of Northeast Florida due to 93L and a developing Nor' easter. It's a good thing this didn't develop into a full blown storm or hurricane but it shows this year's pattern of the waves heading into Florida. Hermine was the only one of these waves that took the route of these waves that developed and hit Florida as a hurricane.

The showers from it have hit off and on with some thunder.

[Nimbus]

I'm real glad its making landfall now, looks like Florida dodged another bullet.
If its an undeclared TD at landfall is there more shear in the gulf to keep it from developing there?

[Aric Dunn]

I'm real glad its making landfall now, looks like Florida dodged another bullet.
If its an undeclared TD at landfall is there more shear in the gulf to keep it from developing there?

still hours to landfall.. and I would be extremely surprised if there was not a closed circ though rather small. ( even though NHC said there was not.)