Ntxw wrote:Larry, for the past couple of days the Atlantic has been under areas of subsidence. This coupled with your dry air is likely the culprit. The two are intertwined. Sinking air is not likely to maintain strong convection on a consistent basis, shear finally did them at the end.
Thanks, Ntxw! I'm really trying to learn from 93L (and hope some others who followed it also do) since it was followed so closely in this thread for the last few days. I don't recall anyone posting about 93L over the weekend even once pointing out subsidence and wonder why. I suspect the reason is that nobody posting in this thread, including myself, thought about subsidence. Is that most easily followed by looking at SAL, the MJO, or something else? The funny thing is the SAL maps showed SAL was largely absent where 93L was over the weekend. Also, the MJO was in the often favorable within the circle position. Nobody pointed out either SAL or MJO being unfavorable over the weekend. I'm just trying to learn and am not doubting you about subsidence. All of these factors make for such interesting discussion, especially since the tropics remain so unpredictable. Even the mighty Euro had a decent closed surface low hit FL tomorrow on one run.