ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneBelle]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/782920128719622144

[ronjon]

Recon measured a closed eyewall of 16 nm and a central pressure of 940/941 mb in Matthew. Some slight strengthening compared to the previous flight.

Just based on satellite appearance and cloud top temps, it appears to be going through a strengthening phase now. Shear also lower than yesterday.

[NDG]

Recon measured a closed eyewall of 16 nm and a central pressure of 940/941 mb in Matthew. Some slight strengthening compared to the previous flight.

Dropsonde measured a 131 knot winds at the surface, so I would think they will increase its winds


Significant Wind Levels
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
853mb (Surface) 115° (from the ESE) 131 knots (151 mph)
850mb 115° (from the ESE) 131 knots (151 mph)
773mb 120° (from the ESE) 135 knots (155 mph)
752mb 135° (from the SE) 114 knots (131 mph)
721mb 145° (from the SE) 121 knots (139 mph)
698mb 150° (from the SSE) 106 knots (122 mph)

[SouthDadeFish]

Recon measured a closed eyewall of 16 nm and a central pressure of 940/941 mb in Matthew. Some slight strengthening compared to the previous flight.

Dropsonde measured a 131 knot winds at the surface, so I would think they will increase its winds


Significant Wind Levels
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
853mb (Surface) 115° (from the ESE) 131 knots (151 mph)
850mb 115° (from the ESE) 131 knots (151 mph)
773mb 120° (from the ESE) 135 knots (155 mph)
752mb 135° (from the SE) 114 knots (131 mph)
721mb 145° (from the SE) 121 knots (139 mph)
698mb 150° (from the SSE) 106 knots (122 mph)

I think there was an error with this report. It claims the surface is 853 mb, which is not true. It likely stopped reporting halfway through the drop, for some reason.

[HurricaneBelle]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/782922169894395904

[NDG]

Recon measured a closed eyewall of 16 nm and a central pressure of 940/941 mb in Matthew. Some slight strengthening compared to the previous flight.

Dropsonde measured a 131 knot winds at the surface, so I would think they will increase its winds


Significant Wind Levels
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
853mb (Surface) 115° (from the ESE) 131 knots (151 mph)
850mb 115° (from the ESE) 131 knots (151 mph)
773mb 120° (from the ESE) 135 knots (155 mph)
752mb 135° (from the SE) 114 knots (131 mph)
721mb 145° (from the SE) 121 knots (139 mph)
698mb 150° (from the SSE) 106 knots (122 mph)

I think there was an error with this report. It claims the surface is 853 mb, which is not true. It likely stopped reporting halfway through the drop, for some reason.

Nice catch, I didn't see that!

[Evil Jeremy]

Matthew has been moving due North all night (and maybe a hair West of North in the last few satellite frames). I'm still not fully buying into the expected NNE movement later today, but if it does, Haiti will get a direct hit.

The 00z ECMWF, and it's ensembles, are worrying for me in North Florida, but it's only one run. I won't be surprised if it flops back east this afternoon.

Today should be fun for recon. Four missions today, for maximum storm coverage. Additionally, NHC is sending out the G-IV every 12 hours to collect atmospheric data.

[GCANE]

Northern eyewall still looking strong.
Center fix, about an hour ago, measured a 4C core temp.

[Frank2]

Good WV view of the GOM trough moving east, and the ridge (dark area eroding):

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[tgenius]

Good WV view of the GOM trough moving east, and the ridge (dark area eroding):

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Frank from the look of that, you'd think the high wouldn't be filling in as much as some of these models are pointing...

[AutoPenalti]

That high does indeed look like it's eroding.

[Happy Pelican]

I know the focus is on Jamaica/Haiti/Florida right now, and my thoughts go out to those residents and I hope the storm busts, but how are we looking in the Jersey Shore area? Too early to say?

My main concern as well. Luckily supply wise, still stocked from Hermine but with multiple houses in my neighborhood up on cribbing while being lifted, I take any and all potential threats very seriously. My Sandy PTSD is in high gear and it's something I'll have to manage possibly for the rest of my life.

[cycloneye]

Must see video by Mark Sudduth.

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/782928087080054785

[JtSmarts]

Must see video by Mark Sudduth.

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/782928087080054785

I'm inhaling every video Mark and Levi put out!

[SapphireSea]

Good WV view of the GOM trough moving east, and the ridge (dark area eroding):

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Yes. Looks like 98L also has been able to assist in the erosion of the ridge. It starting to look like the NHC forecast line will verify very well (within 50 miles). The trough in the rockies also looks fairly formidable and progressive. Have to see if it slows down any. (dont see anything that would slow it down)

[FLLurker32]

Matthew is a bit frustrating. I went to bed last night (Prior to this mornings Euro run) knowing the GFS, Euro and even the last Ukmet run all started to show consensus that it would stay well enough offshore from FL. I wake up to a Euro surprise. Now I'm likely to not be very productive at work because I'll be anticipating the next runs to see if GFS follows Euro.

[jlauderdal]

Good WV view of the GOM trough moving east, and the ridge (dark area eroding):

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Yes. Looks like 98L also has been able to assist in the erosion of the ridge. It starting to look like the NHC forecast line will verify very well (within 50 miles). The trough in the rockies also looks fairly formidable and progressive. Have to see if it slows down any. (dont see anything that would slow it down)

thats fine for today and tomorrow but that troughiness probably wont be there in three days and the ridge builds back in enough to send it back towards florida and nc

[GCANE]

Core Temp = 6C
Up 2C from last fix

[jlauderdal]

Matthew is a bit frustrating. I went to bed last night (Prior to this mornings Euro run) knowing the GFS, Euro and even the last Ukmet run all started to show consensus that it would stay well enough offshore from FL. I wake up to a Euro surprise. Now I'm likely to not be very productive at work because I'll be anticipating the next runs to see if GFS follows Euro.

this is why we dont sound the all clear even though the cone wasnt over SE florida...we knew the ridging was the big question..it could trend back east but that becomes less likely now as we are getting closer to approach..another day of west trend and its a big problem..i predict nhc brings the track west a bit at 11 at days 3,4,5..they can keep going down the middle if they want but the trend is there

[RL3AO]

I still think the biggest short term issue is the mid-level low over New York this morning. GFS and Euro have some decent differences with that system over the next 24 to 72 hours. I think it's one of the reasons the GFS is faster. As we know, faster has rarely been correct with Matthew.