ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4041 Postby HurricaneBelle » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:32 am

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4042 Postby ronjon » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:37 am

SouthDadeFish wrote:Recon measured a closed eyewall of 16 nm and a central pressure of 940/941 mb in Matthew. Some slight strengthening compared to the previous flight.


Just based on satellite appearance and cloud top temps, it appears to be going through a strengthening phase now. Shear also lower than yesterday.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4043 Postby NDG » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:37 am

SouthDadeFish wrote:Recon measured a closed eyewall of 16 nm and a central pressure of 940/941 mb in Matthew. Some slight strengthening compared to the previous flight.


Dropsonde measured a 131 knot winds at the surface, so I would think they will increase its winds


Significant Wind Levels
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
853mb (Surface) 115° (from the ESE) 131 knots (151 mph)
850mb 115° (from the ESE) 131 knots (151 mph)
773mb 120° (from the ESE) 135 knots (155 mph)
752mb 135° (from the SE) 114 knots (131 mph)
721mb 145° (from the SE) 121 knots (139 mph)
698mb 150° (from the SSE) 106 knots (122 mph)
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4044 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:38 am

NDG wrote:
SouthDadeFish wrote:Recon measured a closed eyewall of 16 nm and a central pressure of 940/941 mb in Matthew. Some slight strengthening compared to the previous flight.


Dropsonde measured a 131 knot winds at the surface, so I would think they will increase its winds


Significant Wind Levels
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
853mb (Surface) 115° (from the ESE) 131 knots (151 mph)
850mb 115° (from the ESE) 131 knots (151 mph)
773mb 120° (from the ESE) 135 knots (155 mph)
752mb 135° (from the SE) 114 knots (131 mph)
721mb 145° (from the SE) 121 knots (139 mph)
698mb 150° (from the SSE) 106 knots (122 mph)


I think there was an error with this report. It claims the surface is 853 mb, which is not true. It likely stopped reporting halfway through the drop, for some reason.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4045 Postby HurricaneBelle » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:41 am

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4046 Postby NDG » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:43 am

SouthDadeFish wrote:
NDG wrote:
SouthDadeFish wrote:Recon measured a closed eyewall of 16 nm and a central pressure of 940/941 mb in Matthew. Some slight strengthening compared to the previous flight.


Dropsonde measured a 131 knot winds at the surface, so I would think they will increase its winds


Significant Wind Levels
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
853mb (Surface) 115° (from the ESE) 131 knots (151 mph)
850mb 115° (from the ESE) 131 knots (151 mph)
773mb 120° (from the ESE) 135 knots (155 mph)
752mb 135° (from the SE) 114 knots (131 mph)
721mb 145° (from the SE) 121 knots (139 mph)
698mb 150° (from the SSE) 106 knots (122 mph)


I think there was an error with this report. It claims the surface is 853 mb, which is not true. It likely stopped reporting halfway through the drop, for some reason.


Nice catch, I didn't see that!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4047 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:47 am

Matthew has been moving due North all night (and maybe a hair West of North in the last few satellite frames). I'm still not fully buying into the expected NNE movement later today, but if it does, Haiti will get a direct hit.

The 00z ECMWF, and it's ensembles, are worrying for me in North Florida, but it's only one run. I won't be surprised if it flops back east this afternoon.

Today should be fun for recon. Four missions today, for maximum storm coverage. Additionally, NHC is sending out the G-IV every 12 hours to collect atmospheric data.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4048 Postby GCANE » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:49 am

Northern eyewall still looking strong.
Center fix, about an hour ago, measured a 4C core temp.

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4049 Postby Frank2 » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:52 am

Good WV view of the GOM trough moving east, and the ridge (dark area eroding):

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4050 Postby tgenius » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:58 am

Frank2 wrote:Good WV view of the GOM trough moving east, and the ridge (dark area eroding):

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html


Frank from the look of that, you'd think the high wouldn't be filling in as much as some of these models are pointing...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4051 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Oct 03, 2016 8:01 am

That high does indeed look like it's eroding.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4052 Postby Happy Pelican » Mon Oct 03, 2016 8:02 am

GoneBabyGone wrote:I know the focus is on Jamaica/Haiti/Florida right now, and my thoughts go out to those residents and I hope the storm busts, but how are we looking in the Jersey Shore area? Too early to say?


My main concern as well. Luckily supply wise, still stocked from Hermine but with multiple houses in my neighborhood up on cribbing while being lifted, I take any and all potential threats very seriously. My Sandy PTSD is in high gear and it's something I'll have to manage possibly for the rest of my life.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4053 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 03, 2016 8:02 am

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4054 Postby JtSmarts » Mon Oct 03, 2016 8:19 am

cycloneye wrote:Must see video by Mark Sudduth.

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/782928087080054785



I'm inhaling every video Mark and Levi put out!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4055 Postby SapphireSea » Mon Oct 03, 2016 8:20 am

Frank2 wrote:Good WV view of the GOM trough moving east, and the ridge (dark area eroding):

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html


Yes. Looks like 98L also has been able to assist in the erosion of the ridge. It starting to look like the NHC forecast line will verify very well (within 50 miles). The trough in the rockies also looks fairly formidable and progressive. Have to see if it slows down any. (dont see anything that would slow it down)
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4056 Postby FLLurker32 » Mon Oct 03, 2016 8:46 am

Matthew is a bit frustrating. I went to bed last night (Prior to this mornings Euro run) knowing the GFS, Euro and even the last Ukmet run all started to show consensus that it would stay well enough offshore from FL. I wake up to a Euro surprise. Now I'm likely to not be very productive at work because I'll be anticipating the next runs to see if GFS follows Euro. :double:
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4057 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Oct 03, 2016 8:47 am

SapphireSea wrote:
Frank2 wrote:Good WV view of the GOM trough moving east, and the ridge (dark area eroding):

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html


Yes. Looks like 98L also has been able to assist in the erosion of the ridge. It starting to look like the NHC forecast line will verify very well (within 50 miles). The trough in the rockies also looks fairly formidable and progressive. Have to see if it slows down any. (dont see anything that would slow it down)


thats fine for today and tomorrow but that troughiness probably wont be there in three days and the ridge builds back in enough to send it back towards florida and nc
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4058 Postby GCANE » Mon Oct 03, 2016 8:49 am

Core Temp = 6C
Up 2C from last fix

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4059 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Oct 03, 2016 8:50 am

FLLurker32 wrote:Matthew is a bit frustrating. I went to bed last night (Prior to this mornings Euro run) knowing the GFS, Euro and even the last Ukmet run all started to show consensus that it would stay well enough offshore from FL. I wake up to a Euro surprise. Now I'm likely to not be very productive at work because I'll be anticipating the next runs to see if GFS follows Euro. :double:
this is why we dont sound the all clear even though the cone wasnt over SE florida...we knew the ridging was the big question..it could trend back east but that becomes less likely now as we are getting closer to approach..another day of west trend and its a big problem..i predict nhc brings the track west a bit at 11 at days 3,4,5..they can keep going down the middle if they want but the trend is there
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4060 Postby RL3AO » Mon Oct 03, 2016 8:51 am

I still think the biggest short term issue is the mid-level low over New York this morning. GFS and Euro have some decent differences with that system over the next 24 to 72 hours. I think it's one of the reasons the GFS is faster. As we know, faster has rarely been correct with Matthew.
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