ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4741 Postby floridasun78 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:02 pm


i see bit west when over Bahamas 96 hours
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4742 Postby Blown Away » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:03 pm

:uarrow: What's the trend here?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4743 Postby tolakram » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:03 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4744 Postby Bocadude85 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:03 pm

Did the GIV data make it into the 18Z models or will that be in the 0z run?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4745 Postby Alyono » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:03 pm

I suspect that with the weaker ridge, this run is going to be a wide miss of the East Coast. Not enough ridging to drive this into the coast
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4746 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:04 pm

Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:Image


Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4747 Postby Alyono » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:05 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:Did the GIV data make it into the 18Z models or will that be in the 0z run?


half of the sondes are in the 18Z
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4748 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:09 pm

Alyono wrote:I suspect that with the weaker ridge, this run is going to be a wide miss of the East Coast. Not enough ridging to drive this into the coast


Is the ridge really weaker though? Farther east, yes, but it's still fast and dominants the upper air environment to the north despite the weakness to its east.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4749 Postby tolakram » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:09 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4750 Postby tolakram » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:11 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4751 Postby tolakram » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:12 pm

It's made the NE turn but still faster than the euro.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4752 Postby tolakram » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:13 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4753 Postby ohitsdatguy » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:14 pm

The 18Z has a weaker ridge but a stronger trough over the midwest, will be interesting to see the outcome.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4754 Postby toad strangler » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:17 pm

18z GFS Back to a huge coastal brush FL to NC of a couple days ago.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4755 Postby tolakram » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:18 pm

Upper air solutions vastly different.

GFS
Image

Euro
Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4756 Postby toad strangler » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:21 pm

tolakram wrote:Upper air solutions vastly different.

GFS
[i mg]http://i.imgur.com/jnYSmUE.png[/img]

Euro
[i mg]http://i.imgur.com/fdFODQg.png[/img]


With a stronger system it might be worthwhile looking at 200 mb.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4757 Postby WHYB630 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:25 pm

moving reallllly faster than 12z EC :double:
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4758 Postby tolakram » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:34 pm

toad strangler wrote:With a stronger system it might be worthwhile looking at 200 mb.


Comparing the public 200mb GFS with the private Euro shows about the same setup difference as the 500mb plot. It's the timing and depth of the front that seems to be the primary difference.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4759 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:40 pm

none of the models cross 75w at this point and its crossing it and still moving wnw.. ish
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4760 Postby stormreader » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:41 pm

tolakram wrote:Upper air solutions vastly different.

GFS
Image

Euro
Image

Wow! Incredibly different. Seems like that would have to make a difference for a possible landfall in N Carolina.
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