tarheelprogrammer wrote:A tiny bit east at hour 90:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atl&pkg=z500aNorm&runtime=2016100218&fh=90&xpos=0&ypos=200
i see bit west when over Bahamas 96 hours
ATL: MATTHEW - Models
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floridasun78
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
i see bit west when over Bahamas 96 hours
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
What's the trend here?
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
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Bocadude85
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Did the GIV data make it into the 18Z models or will that be in the 0z run?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
I suspect that with the weaker ridge, this run is going to be a wide miss of the East Coast. Not enough ridging to drive this into the coast
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Bocadude85 wrote:Did the GIV data make it into the 18Z models or will that be in the 0z run?
half of the sondes are in the 18Z
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FLpanhandle91
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Alyono wrote:I suspect that with the weaker ridge, this run is going to be a wide miss of the East Coast. Not enough ridging to drive this into the coast
Is the ridge really weaker though? Farther east, yes, but it's still fast and dominants the upper air environment to the north despite the weakness to its east.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
It's made the NE turn but still faster than the euro.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
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ohitsdatguy
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
The 18Z has a weaker ridge but a stronger trough over the midwest, will be interesting to see the outcome.
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toad strangler
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
18z GFS Back to a huge coastal brush FL to NC of a couple days ago.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Upper air solutions vastly different.
GFS
Euro
GFS
Euro
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toad strangler
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
tolakram wrote:Upper air solutions vastly different.
GFS
[i mg]http://i.imgur.com/jnYSmUE.png[/img]
Euro
[i mg]http://i.imgur.com/fdFODQg.png[/img]
With a stronger system it might be worthwhile looking at 200 mb.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
toad strangler wrote:With a stronger system it might be worthwhile looking at 200 mb.
Comparing the public 200mb GFS with the private Euro shows about the same setup difference as the 500mb plot. It's the timing and depth of the front that seems to be the primary difference.
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
none of the models cross 75w at this point and its crossing it and still moving wnw.. ish
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stormreader
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
tolakram wrote:Upper air solutions vastly different.
GFS
Euro
Wow! Incredibly different. Seems like that would have to make a difference for a possible landfall in N Carolina.
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