ATL: MARIA - Models

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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models

#181 Postby SFLcane » Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:08 am

Should recurve before getting close to the SE with that weakness there
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models

#182 Postby ColdMiser123 » Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:11 am

Without the influence of Jose to tug future Maria to the N and NE, it is going to be very difficult for this storm to not come close to the United States mainland.
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models

#183 Postby Siker » Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:11 am

SFLcane wrote:Should recurve before getting close to the SE with that weakness there


That's been present on previous runs, but it closes up as the high over Canada expands SEward.
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models

#184 Postby chris_fit » Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:12 am

SFLcane wrote:Should recurve before getting close to the SE with that weakness there


Not seeing a recurve here - I'm gonna guess NFL to SC Landfall

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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models

#185 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:12 am

I see nothing but ridging building on and off the mid atlantic coast with the GFS. dont see a recurve unless something in the upper level s swings through.
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models

#186 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:14 am

Ridge closes the gap there, jesus cow... :double:
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models

#187 Postby Blown Away » Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:15 am

SFLcane wrote:Should recurve before getting close to the SE with that weakness there


500mb pressures look much higher on 12z?
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models

#188 Postby hurricaneCW » Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:16 am

It's not going to recurve unless Jose misses the trough and sticks around in the north Atlantic.
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models

#189 Postby ColdMiser123 » Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:17 am

Unfortunately, a downright classic pattern for this to directly impact the SE coast.

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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models

#190 Postby M3gaMatch » Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:19 am

depends if that ridge holds out
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models

#191 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:19 am

probably northern florida to SC/NC border on this one..
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models

#192 Postby Blown Away » Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:24 am

Looking like a mid Atlantic storm potential ATM...
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models

#193 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:24 am

However it seems to be magically plowing through the very large expansive ridge that surrounds it from bermuda all the was to texas and up to canada.. must be some other mechanism turning it. start looking in the upper levels.
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models

#194 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:26 am

CMC shifts west now north of Cuba
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models

#195 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:27 am

Aric Dunn wrote:However it seems to be magically plowing through the very large expansive ridge that surrounds it from bermuda all the was to texas and up to canada.. must be some other mechanism turning it. start looking in the upper levels.


and here is why..

looks like a mid to upper level trough that is extending from the far southern gulf up to the mid atlantic.

its very narrow though.. if that feature was not there.. florida straights would be in play..

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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models

#196 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:28 am

CMC with a Miami hit
Last edited by gatorcane on Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models

#197 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:28 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:However it seems to be magically plowing through the very large expansive ridge that surrounds it from bermuda all the was to texas and up to canada.. must be some other mechanism turning it. start looking in the upper levels.


and here is why..

looks like a mid to upper level trough that is extending from the far southern gulf up to the mid atlantic.

its very narrow though.. if that feature was not there.. florida straights would be in play..

Image


Something tells me that trough won't be there...
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models

#198 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:29 am

at 198 hours looks like that narrow trough cuts off into a TUTT feature and the hurricane starts bending more wnw..
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models

#199 Postby cajungal » Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:31 am

Wonder if there is any chance this could go in the gulf.
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models

#200 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:32 am

cajungal wrote:Wonder if there is any chance this could go in the gulf.


with that type of ridging in place yes. but that trough over the gulf and SE would have to disappear.
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