ATL: MARIA - Models
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models
Should recurve before getting close to the SE with that weakness there
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models
Without the influence of Jose to tug future Maria to the N and NE, it is going to be very difficult for this storm to not come close to the United States mainland.
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models
SFLcane wrote:Should recurve before getting close to the SE with that weakness there
That's been present on previous runs, but it closes up as the high over Canada expands SEward.
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models
SFLcane wrote:Should recurve before getting close to the SE with that weakness there
Not seeing a recurve here - I'm gonna guess NFL to SC Landfall

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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models
I see nothing but ridging building on and off the mid atlantic coast with the GFS. dont see a recurve unless something in the upper level s swings through.
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models
Ridge closes the gap there, jesus cow... 

Last edited by AutoPenalti on Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models
SFLcane wrote:Should recurve before getting close to the SE with that weakness there
500mb pressures look much higher on 12z?
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models
It's not going to recurve unless Jose misses the trough and sticks around in the north Atlantic.
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- ColdMiser123
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models
Unfortunately, a downright classic pattern for this to directly impact the SE coast.


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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models
probably northern florida to SC/NC border on this one..
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models
Looking like a mid Atlantic storm potential ATM...
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models
However it seems to be magically plowing through the very large expansive ridge that surrounds it from bermuda all the was to texas and up to canada.. must be some other mechanism turning it. start looking in the upper levels.
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models
Aric Dunn wrote:However it seems to be magically plowing through the very large expansive ridge that surrounds it from bermuda all the was to texas and up to canada.. must be some other mechanism turning it. start looking in the upper levels.
and here is why..
looks like a mid to upper level trough that is extending from the far southern gulf up to the mid atlantic.
its very narrow though.. if that feature was not there.. florida straights would be in play..

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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models
CMC with a Miami hit
Last edited by gatorcane on Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models
Aric Dunn wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:However it seems to be magically plowing through the very large expansive ridge that surrounds it from bermuda all the was to texas and up to canada.. must be some other mechanism turning it. start looking in the upper levels.
and here is why..
looks like a mid to upper level trough that is extending from the far southern gulf up to the mid atlantic.
its very narrow though.. if that feature was not there.. florida straights would be in play..
Something tells me that trough won't be there...
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models
at 198 hours looks like that narrow trough cuts off into a TUTT feature and the hurricane starts bending more wnw..
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Re: ATL: FIFTEEN - Models
cajungal wrote:Wonder if there is any chance this could go in the gulf.
with that type of ridging in place yes. but that trough over the gulf and SE would have to disappear.
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