ATL: JOSE - Models

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forecasterjack
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#21 Postby forecasterjack » Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:22 pm

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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#22 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:32 pm

noooo cannot happen i move cal
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#23 Postby sflicht » Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:00 pm

Obviously it's crazy to put too much stock in models this far out, but 18Z GFS is showing an intriguing dance between Jose and Lee at day 13. Any precedents for that kind of interaction in this part of the Atlantic?
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#24 Postby sflicht » Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:02 pm

Does the Azores anticyclone more or less guarantee they're protected from a tropical storm striking from the west, or could some exotic interaction between Jose and Lee actually overcome that and lead at least one of those storms over the islands?
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#25 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Wed Sep 06, 2017 9:58 pm

sflicht wrote:Obviously it's crazy to put too much stock in models this far out, but 18Z GFS is showing an intriguing dance between Jose and Lee at day 13. Any precedents for that kind of interaction in this part of the Atlantic?


Isn't that a Fujiwara effect depicted?
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#26 Postby ColdMiser123 » Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:54 am

Way out there, but the 0z Euro wants to turn Jose into Jeanne 2.0.

Lots of options for Jose after Day 5.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#27 Postby wxmann_91 » Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:55 am

This is in fantasy range for sure, but models and their ensembles do hint at building heights in the western Atlantic later next week...

Image
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#28 Postby AtlanticWind » Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:56 am

This would be a nightmare for us in florida ,another major hurricane?
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#29 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Sep 07, 2017 2:38 am

Ryan Maue‏Verified account @RyanMaue 26m26 minutes ago
More
Hurricane Jose will need to be watched closely next week as steering currents collapse & storm may loop a la Jeanne [2004].


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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#30 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:02 am

I seriously hope this is a bad case of the Euro being horrendous in its long-range like it's known to be this season. That's the last thing folks need in SE FL!
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#31 Postby EquusStorm » Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:06 am

Category four Gulf hurricane hitting while RI followed by a long-lived, island-shredding, 'I'-named Cat 5 Cape Verde ACE churner heading generally for Florida and then a 'J'-named possible looping hit following fairly close behind? Is this 2004 or 2017??

Seriously though... I heard mention of a possible Lee on long range GFS earlier, how long is the ridging supposed to be this strong? It's really not good to have a Cape Verde train going while under super strong ridging, obviously
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#32 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:07 am

GOD FORBID!!!!!!!!!

A double whammy of two major hurricanes impacting Florida within 10 days??

Oh my heavens?? I freaked out seeing the latest 0Z EURO run.

A Jeanne '04 type scenario Part 2 in the making? The Ridge building right back in to steer Jose back at the Bahamas and Florida? This would be a complete nightmare if this verified.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#33 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:04 am

TheStormExpert wrote:I seriously hope this is a bad case of the Euro being horrendous in its long-range like it's known to be this season. That's the last thing folks need in SE FL!

Alot of people would be hoping maybe its just as you say the ec being horrendous @L/R.
If not who know's some real estate may become uninhabitable for years.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#34 Postby USTropics » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:28 am

Quite a few ECMWF ensembles are showing Jose doing an anti-cyclonic loop:

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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#35 Postby Nightwatch » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:57 am

Jose seems to shift further west every single day...
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#36 Postby Kazmit » Thu Sep 07, 2017 5:30 am

Image
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#37 Postby NDG » Thu Sep 07, 2017 6:21 am

Insult to injury that the models are trending towards Jose tracking over or close to the Leeward Islands, unreal.
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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#38 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 07, 2017 6:26 am

0Z Euro loop solution

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Re: ATL: JOSE - Models

#39 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:01 pm

I guess the Euro is showing Jose making a cyclonic loop near Florida just like the GFS did a few days ago. People better pay attention to this just in case. I know people are still talking about Harvey and now Irma, but this could be bad also.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#40 Postby abajan » Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:29 pm

Michele B wrote:Yes, I watched this loop!

Not sure how to embed.

Image

Just wrap it in image tags like you would any other type of image. That's what I did above.
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