robbielyn wrote:Steve wrote:WeatherEmperor wrote:...or maybe the NAO doesnt have as much effect on trough-ridge setups as we thought...
That would be difficult since it's essentially a measurement of pressure differnce at mean sea level between Azores High and Icelandic (also known as sub-polar) Low up that way.
For further verification, we'd have to look out to the WPAC for 7-10 day teleconnections which I haven't done yet but am about to do.
1) TS MAWAR moves NW into China coming up South of Taiwan with anticipated landfall just before 12Z on Sunday. Argues for ridging along the SE US East Coast 10th through 13th, possibly oriented with a NW-SE western periphery
2) Typhoon Sanvu recurves east of Japan on a NNE heading. This argues for troughing just off the US East Coast a bit farther north in the same time frame with probably a subtropical ridge to it's South and East.
^
Mixed signals for next week from the WPAC.
so based off this info, what's ur wild guess as to landfall if any?
Haha. I have no idea. I think the NE Islands have a bit to worry about. Last night I felt like the Bahamian Kingdom has the most to worry about. Bastardi's updated track today shows a Cat 5 just off the NE Tip of Puerto Rico, so the US has major impacts there. Based more or less of the ECMWF, I figured it would go into S FL from the SE or S. But after it swung completely in the other direction, if there's going to be landfall, maybe between North Carolina and Newfoundland? I'd give this about 2% credence from 10 days out. The upper pattern north of 50W has been fluid all season with systems moving west to east across Canada rather than settling into a specific pattern east of 80W.
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