ATL: IRMA - Models

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2141 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:35 am

Slow northward/northwestward movement for 24 hrs
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2142 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:36 am

CMC ends by channeling his best inner Floyd. Comes right to Florida's doorstep and then turns north towards the Carolinas.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2143 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:36 am

CourierPR wrote:Does it look like there is a bend to the west at 198?


or W/NW.

Also, I mentioned earlier in the week of a possibility of Irma getting stalled off the Southeast Coast by a blocking HP ridge and missing the trough connection next week. That is certainly a plausible scenario.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2144 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:37 am

Turning north at hour 216

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=vort850_uv200&runtime=2017090112&fh=216&xpos=0&ypos=424.79998779296875
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2145 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:37 am

Days 5-10 on the 12z GFS is fairly similar to last night's Euro run, but the GFS is still a little to the right with the track of Harvey compared to the Euro.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2146 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:37 am

Due north
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2147 Postby weathaguyry » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:37 am

Moving N at 228, but really has nowhere to go

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090112/gfs_pres_wind_watl_39.png
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2148 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:39 am

I don't see any 591 mb lines to hold it, looks like OTS at @222 hrs...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2149 Postby weathaguyry » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:39 am

Still due N at 234...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090112/gfs_pres_wind_watl_40.png
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2150 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:39 am

It's trapped...nowhere to go

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2151 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:39 am

weathaguyry wrote:Moving N at 228, but really has nowhere to go

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090112/gfs_pres_wind_watl_39.png


Yeap, ridging moving east over eastern Canada, may bend it back towards the Mid Atlantic/NE US.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2152 Postby GCANE » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:39 am

Massive High over Maine now depicted on 9/10 18Z.
Pushing east.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2153 Postby weathaguyry » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:41 am

Still moving N- NNE at 240...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090112/gfs_pres_wind_watl_41.png
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2154 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:41 am

High building. Would be shocked if OTS occurs
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2155 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:42 am

:uarrow: If this run turns out like this, I do not envision an OTS scenario at all.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2156 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:42 am

Heh,,, Completely different synoptics since yesterday past h120...More changes to come. Ridge building down from NE US. Looks to kick it into NJ!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2157 Postby hohnywx » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:43 am

BensonTCwatcher wrote:Heh,,, Completely different synoptics since yesterday past h120...More changes to come. Ridge building down from NE US. Looks to kick it into NJ!


Impossible! Everyone this morning said it was out to sea and done with after one model run

:wink: :wink: :wink:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2158 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:44 am

Well into fantasy range, but what we know at this point is the timing and position of the upper air features is very critical.

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2159 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:44 am

The GFS loves its north movement.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2160 Postby weathaguyry » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:44 am

Moving NNE at 252, but may end up bending back in

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090112/gfs_z500a_watl_42.png
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