ATL: IRMA - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2141 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:35 am

Slow northward/northwestward movement for 24 hrs
Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2142 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:36 am

CMC ends by channeling his best inner Floyd. Comes right to Florida's doorstep and then turns north towards the Carolinas.
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2143 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:36 am

CourierPR wrote:Does it look like there is a bend to the west at 198?


or W/NW.

Also, I mentioned earlier in the week of a possibility of Irma getting stalled off the Southeast Coast by a blocking HP ridge and missing the trough connection next week. That is certainly a plausible scenario.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
Top
User avatar
tarheelprogrammer
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1793
Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2016 9:25 pm
Location: Raleigh, NC area (Garner, NC)

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2144 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:37 am

Turning north at hour 216

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=vort850_uv200&runtime=2017090112&fh=216&xpos=0&ypos=424.79998779296875
0 likes   
My posts are not official forecasts. They are just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15448
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2145 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:37 am

Days 5-10 on the 12z GFS is fairly similar to last night's Euro run, but the GFS is still a little to the right with the track of Harvey compared to the Euro.
0 likes   
Top
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2146 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:37 am

Due north
Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
weathaguyry
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1272
Age: 22
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2147 Postby weathaguyry » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:37 am

Moving N at 228, but really has nowhere to go

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090112/gfs_pres_wind_watl_39.png
1 likes   
My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.

Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10153
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2148 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:39 am

I don't see any 591 mb lines to hold it, looks like OTS at @222 hrs...
1 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05… Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
User avatar
weathaguyry
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1272
Age: 22
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2149 Postby weathaguyry » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:39 am

Still due N at 234...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090112/gfs_pres_wind_watl_40.png
0 likes   
My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.

Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2150 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:39 am

It's trapped...nowhere to go

Image
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15448
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2151 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:39 am

weathaguyry wrote:Moving N at 228, but really has nowhere to go

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090112/gfs_pres_wind_watl_39.png


Yeap, ridging moving east over eastern Canada, may bend it back towards the Mid Atlantic/NE US.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11501
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2152 Postby GCANE » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:39 am

Massive High over Maine now depicted on 9/10 18Z.
Pushing east.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
weathaguyry
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1272
Age: 22
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2153 Postby weathaguyry » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:41 am

Still moving N- NNE at 240...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090112/gfs_pres_wind_watl_41.png
0 likes   
My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.

Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Top
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2154 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:41 am

High building. Would be shocked if OTS occurs
Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2155 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:42 am

:uarrow: If this run turns out like this, I do not envision an OTS scenario at all.
1 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
Top
User avatar
BensonTCwatcher
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1046
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:11 pm
Location: Southport NC

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2156 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:42 am

Heh,,, Completely different synoptics since yesterday past h120...More changes to come. Ridge building down from NE US. Looks to kick it into NJ!
0 likes   
Top
hohnywx
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 508
Age: 34
Joined: Sun Jul 19, 2009 8:34 pm
Location: Hastings-on-Hudson, NY

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2157 Postby hohnywx » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:43 am

BensonTCwatcher wrote:Heh,,, Completely different synoptics since yesterday past h120...More changes to come. Ridge building down from NE US. Looks to kick it into NJ!


Impossible! Everyone this morning said it was out to sea and done with after one model run

:wink: :wink: :wink:
5 likes   
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20012
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2158 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:44 am

Well into fantasy range, but what we know at this point is the timing and position of the upper air features is very critical.

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2159 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:44 am

The GFS loves its north movement.
Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
weathaguyry
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1272
Age: 22
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2160 Postby weathaguyry » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:44 am

Moving NNE at 252, but may end up bending back in

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090112/gfs_z500a_watl_42.png
0 likes   
My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.

Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest