ATL: IRMA - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like more ridging to the north of Irma through 54 hours. Haven't seen that much since yesterday's 12z.

[weathaguyry]

72 hours

[SouthFLTropics]

[AxaltaRacing24]

Trend after 72 hrs

[weathaguyry]

78 hours

[SouthFLTropics]

The ULL to the NW is further north on this run and weaker.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Islands?

[weathaguyry]

84 hours

[Blinhart]

I still don't see this storm going that fast.

[SFLcane]

If it doesn't pull up its coming into the islands on this run.

[weathaguyry]

102 hours

[AxaltaRacing24]

Close to the islands @96 hrs position is almost on top of the Euro

[tarheelprogrammer]

Close to the islands @96 hrs position is almost on top of the Euro

Trough is strong there. Maybe it is OTS????????

[Alyono]

GFS only misses Antigua by about 80 miles

[xironman]

The trough coming across is about as strong and deep as I have seen it. Irma should feel it good.

[Alyono]

Close to the islands @96 hrs position is almost on top of the Euro

Trough is strong there. Maybe it is OTS????????

If you want an out to sea scenario, you want a WEAK TROUGH!!! This is said many times, but needs to be repeated. A stronger trough is going to have a sharper tilt, if not a negative tilt. That will only bring the storm inland. A weak trough is more zonal

[weathaguyry]

108 hours

[Siker]

Trough is a little further east, but it still seems like it will be cutoff based on the distance of the lobe up by Greenland (not entirely sure if I'm reading that correctly).

[weathaguyry]

114 hours

[stormreader]

About the only thing you can reasonably remove from the likely track of Irma right now is a brush through the Antilles and toward the Keys. Everyone else from Florida up to New England is still reasonable under threat. Timing, Trough depth and movement and positioning of the Ridge over the Atlantic are all still quite likely to flip flop in the models beyond 4-5 days. Irma being still that far out any deviation can have large implications beyond 5 days.

Take Away? Folks need to stop with hanging on every run of the models beyond 4-5 days for now in thinking one way or the other so and so along the east coast is in the clear or the target! Breathe people!

I don't think we can even yet rule out a trek near the Fl Straits and the Keys. Not saying its gonna happen, just can't rule out just yet. The ridging looks to continue late in the forecast period, if the effects of the trough don't materialize (and we don't know yet), Irma could continue WNW toward S Fl. Could even be a little more west component temporarily of the trough component does not materialize. I think its still a possibility to be reckoned with.