ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Shear and 200mb PV is clearing out ahead of Franklin.
I wouldn't be suprised if Franklin maintains intensity across the Yucatan or even slightly strengthen.

[Aric Dunn]

Shear and 200mb PV is clearing out ahead of Franklin.
I wouldn't be suprised if Franklin maintains intensity across the Yucatan or even slightly strengthen.

Some RI is quite possible over the next 12 hours before landfall. hurricane is looking more likely every hour.

[GCANE]

Shear and 200mb PV is clearing out ahead of Franklin.
I wouldn't be suprised if Franklin maintains intensity across the Yucatan or even slightly strengthen.

Some RI is quite possible over the next 12 hours before landfall. hurricane is looking more likely every hour.

This really looks good.
Hurricane watch issued for the Yucatan.
Going into the BOC, air column will be saturated and UL conditions ideal for intensification.

[Nimbus]

Just watching the high cirrus clouds expanding the anticyclone in the water vapor loop.
I sure hope Franklin doesn't slow its forward motion..

[GCANE]

Just watching the high cirrus clouds expanding the anticyclone in the water vapor loop.
I sure hope Franklin doesn't slow its forward motion..

The ULL is ventilating this really well - ideally positioned.

[GCANE]

ADT

[GCANE]

Intensifying on Microwave.

[Nimbus]

Just watching the high cirrus clouds expanding the anticyclone in the water vapor loop.
I sure hope Franklin doesn't slow its forward motion..

The ULL is ventilating this really well - ideally positioned.

That might cause the models to hasten the intensity trending.
Large anticyclones tend to squelch the upper air steering to some degree.
Hope this just means Tampico is spared but we should still watch the models if they start trending north.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Just watching the high cirrus clouds expanding the anticyclone in the water vapor loop.
I sure hope Franklin doesn't slow its forward motion..

The ULL is ventilating this really well - ideally positioned.

That might cause the models to hasten the intensity trending.
Large anticyclones tend to squelch the upper air steering to some degree.
Hope this just means Tampico is spared but we should still watch the models if they start trending north.

SO is there a chance this goes more North what will a stronger system do in this situation because no models bring it too far North but can you explain the Anti-Cyclone thing to me please ?

[GCANE]

Coming up on DMAX and going off-scale on 8.4 um.
Yucatan buoy looks like its about to take a dive on surface pressure.

[Alyono]

if this builds a core before striking the Yucatan, it may be better news for the heavily populated areas down the line. This is what HWRF is showing. Shows a storm without a core when it comes off of the Yucatan. Thus, it is unable to rapidly intensify

[BobHarlem]

It's starting to show up on the long range Belize radar, (no center... yet but soon)

http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/observations ... dar-images for the radar

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?258 has a long loop going of it

[Nimbus]

The ULL is ventilating this really well - ideally positioned.

That might cause the models to hasten the intensity trending.
Large anticyclones tend to squelch the upper air steering to some degree.
Hope this just means Tampico is spared but we should still watch the models if they start trending north.

SO is there a chance this goes more North what will a stronger system do in this situation because no models bring it too far North but can you explain the Anti-Cyclone thing to me please ?

Explain blister?

[GCANE]

Very high rain rate moving into a totally saturated air column with zero shear.
Nothing better for warm-core intensification.
IMHO, lots of room to make it to Cat 1 before the Yucatan.
If this intensifies more than the models give it, the Coriolis-Differential / Beta thing could bend this more north than currently forecasted.

[SouthDadeFish]

A recent SSMIS pass suggests a mid-level core is starting to form. We need a higher resolution overpass to determine if this is also happening in the lower levels of the troposphere. Regardless, the organization of the TC has improved significantly since this time yesterday.

[Kazmit]

This really feels like an Earl 2.0. But since it's further north, it will have more time to restrengthen over the Bay of Campeche before its second landfall.

[cycloneye]

8 AM EDT Intermediate Advisory up to 50 mph

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 07 2017

...FRANKLIN GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 84.7W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[Ntxw]

I agree with the posts above. Franklin is looking quite healthy this morning. Structurally below is sound and likely pushing for a very strong TS landfall at the minimum on the Yucatan.

[tolakram]

GOES16 slider visible

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=6509&y=7318&z=3&im=6&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[Aric Dunn]

Could this be the classic pulsing down of the convection prior to the inner core developing. Then will see indicdual towers fire off in the "eyewall" that rapidly grow and rotate around as the core builds.. always fun to watch.. will be perfect timing for recon.