ATL: IRMA - Models

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otowntiger
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5681 Postby otowntiger » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:20 am

SouthDadeFish wrote:12Z GFS is basically the worst-case scenario for S FL. Avoids land for the most part, and then moves directly into S FL around the edge of the ridge to the NE. Thankfully this is still six days out so a lot can change. I guess the good news is that the run did move a touch east from the prior run, so hopefully this is the start of a trend toward out-to-sea, but that may be only a dream at this point...

Agreed. The hope for an out to sea option is still not off the table I would think given we are still 6 days out and we've seen some big changes about every 12 hours or so. Again I certainly know less than you guys.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5682 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:20 am

We need that Gulf Stream data and we need it ASAP.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5683 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:20 am

AutoPenalti wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
RL3AO wrote:Trend towards a more progressive and more positively tilted trough.

https://i.imgur.com/bGP8cB9.gif

What would that mean as far as potential track?

Recurve over or near Florida.

Thanks! The situation for the state of Florida is looking bad at the moment.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5684 Postby Raebie » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:21 am

RL3AO wrote:Gonna go right up the entire SE US coast.


Double ouch.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5685 Postby RL3AO » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:21 am

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5686 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:21 am

Second landfall, GA/SC border at 180
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5687 Postby poof121 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:21 am

JPmia wrote:I'll ask again since it was a few pages ago.. anyone know if the balloon data from across the CONUS was included in this GFS run?


Normal 12 hourly ones, yes. The 6 hourly ones aren't going in until the 0Z runs.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5688 Postby pgoss11 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:22 am

An unusual Savannah hit??
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5689 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:22 am

Absolute worst case scenario for Florida, and the models have been consolidating on this solution for a while. Florida impacts would be 5+ days out, plenty of time for the outlook to change. Still, the kind of preparations needed for a threat this potentially devastating need to start right now.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5690 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:23 am

Weak trough over MN, maybe it'll kick it up the coast?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5691 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:23 am

AutoPenalti wrote:We need that Gulf Stream data and we need it ASAP.

I really do wonder how much that will change things though? Is it possible that things are already getting set in stone because I have seen in the past where the Gulf Stream data did little to nothing to start a new trend or randomly shift things several hundred miles or so. Hopefully in this case it does change things and by that hopefully things trend to the east.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5692 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:23 am

Extremely close to another landfall GA/SC Border at 180 (8.5 days from 7am today).

Landfall 186 - Savannah, Hilton Head, Tybee Island!
Looks like a Cat 3 on reentry.
Last edited by Steve on Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5693 Postby bella_may » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:23 am

No sharp NE turn this run. Trend is bad for the GOM
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5694 Postby Raebie » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:23 am

weathaguyry wrote:Second landfall, GA/SC border at 180


Welp, that's gonna take care of both my homes in one fell swoop. Charlotte and Wilmington. Oh, and my Mom's timeshare in Hilton Head. Lovely.
Last edited by Raebie on Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5695 Postby crimi481 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:23 am

Is Irma w. or E. compared to last few runs?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5696 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:23 am

JPmia wrote:I'll ask again since it was a few pages ago.. anyone know if the balloon data from across the CONUS was included in this GFS run?

All of the normal 12Z data from the CONUS radiosondes has been assimilated into this model suite. Six hour radiosonde launches haven't begun quite yet.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5697 Postby fox13weather » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:24 am

Paralleling the east coast and never making landfall in Florida is still very much in play.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5698 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:24 am

The sequel to Matthew, "Matthew's evil sister Irma gets revenge!"
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5699 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:25 am

If these last three runs of the GFS were to pan out then we would have to have a mandatory evacuation order for the whole peninsula and some. Would be the worst mass evacuation in U.S. history!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5700 Postby Alyono » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:25 am

UKMET goes full Georges! Yikes. Over PR, Hispañiola, and then over eastern Cuba. Somehow, it keeps it strong, which is unlikely
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