ATL: IRMA - Models

[stormreader]

Gonna go right up the entire SE US coast.

Well guess I missed it. Still has a strong turn at the end, with a run up the E Coast. Thinking it would be more gradual with perhaps a run up the west coast or a turn near the Ft Myers area.

[otowntiger]

12Z GFS is basically the worst-case scenario for S FL. Avoids land for the most part, and then moves directly into S FL around the edge of the ridge to the NE. Thankfully this is still six days out so a lot can change. I guess the good news is that the run did move a touch east from the prior run, so hopefully this is the start of a trend toward out-to-sea, but that may be only a dream at this point...

Agreed. The hope for an out to sea option is still not off the table I would think given we are still 6 days out and we've seen some big changes about every 12 hours or so. Again I certainly know less than you guys.

[AutoPenalti]

We need that Gulf Stream data and we need it ASAP.

[TheStormExpert]

Trend towards a more progressive and more positively tilted trough.

https://i.imgur.com/bGP8cB9.gif

What would that mean as far as potential track?

Recurve over or near Florida.

Thanks! The situation for the state of Florida is looking bad at the moment.

[Raebie]

Gonna go right up the entire SE US coast.

Double ouch.

[RL3AO]

[weathaguyry]

Second landfall, GA/SC border at 180

[poof121]

I'll ask again since it was a few pages ago.. anyone know if the balloon data from across the CONUS was included in this GFS run?

Normal 12 hourly ones, yes. The 6 hourly ones aren't going in until the 0Z runs.

[pgoss11]

An unusual Savannah hit??

[Evil Jeremy]

Absolute worst case scenario for Florida, and the models have been consolidating on this solution for a while. Florida impacts would be 5+ days out, plenty of time for the outlook to change. Still, the kind of preparations needed for a threat this potentially devastating need to start right now.

[weathaguyry]

Weak trough over MN, maybe it'll kick it up the coast?

[TheStormExpert]

We need that Gulf Stream data and we need it ASAP.

I really do wonder how much that will change things though? Is it possible that things are already getting set in stone because I have seen in the past where the Gulf Stream data did little to nothing to start a new trend or randomly shift things several hundred miles or so. Hopefully in this case it does change things and by that hopefully things trend to the east.

[Steve]

Extremely close to another landfall GA/SC Border at 180 (8.5 days from 7am today).

Landfall 186 - Savannah, Hilton Head, Tybee Island!
Looks like a Cat 3 on reentry.

[bella_may]

No sharp NE turn this run. Trend is bad for the GOM

[Raebie]

Second landfall, GA/SC border at 180

Welp, that's gonna take care of both my homes in one fell swoop. Charlotte and Wilmington. Oh, and my Mom's timeshare in Hilton Head. Lovely.

[crimi481]

Is Irma w. or E. compared to last few runs?

[1900hurricane]

I'll ask again since it was a few pages ago.. anyone know if the balloon data from across the CONUS was included in this GFS run?

All of the normal 12Z data from the CONUS radiosondes has been assimilated into this model suite. Six hour radiosonde launches haven't begun quite yet.

[fox13weather]

Paralleling the east coast and never making landfall in Florida is still very much in play.

[weathaguyry]

The sequel to Matthew, "Matthew's evil sister Irma gets revenge!"

[TheStormExpert]

If these last three runs of the GFS were to pan out then we would have to have a mandatory evacuation order for the whole peninsula and some. Would be the worst mass evacuation in U.S. history!