ATL: IRMA - Models

[Kingslayer1254]

If the cane speeds up,anyone think the cold front may affect the track?.
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/fx/ncep-progs.html

That's what I'm thinking about. Can anyone explain that scenario?

[caneseddy]

This is bad. NAM out to 66 hours. Absent a miracle we could probably all use, the question is one or two landfalls? Seriously. There goes the trough which we knew was going to happen, but it's 6 hours later now. Odds are the US is probably going to get hit by a 4 or 5.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=527

yet the NAM shifted east

Good or bad for Florida? I can't recall what the NAM was initially showing

[tgenius]

They plugged Data in 18z too. That didnt go well for FL

But that data didn't have the G-IV data in it. That's the key data to possibly adjust the model run.

Yes it did. About half the sondes go into the 18Z, half into the 0Z

Then the chance of a dramatic shift goes down a bit. Still will be a very interesting model run.

[JPmia]

This is bad. NAM out to 66 hours. Absent a miracle we could probably all use, the question is one or two landfalls? Seriously. There goes the trough which we knew was going to happen, but it's 6 hours later now. Odds are the US is probably going to get hit by a 4 or 5.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=527

Yeah Steve.. I didn't want to say anything earlier, but it is common for lots of storms to hit SE FL and then move into the GOM and many times strike NOLA and surroundings.. that's climatology and history. I can understand why GOMers are on alert and watchful. Wish us all luck down here.. I'm really nervous about this.

[tolakram]

0z init

[SFLcane]

GFS with lots of valuable data is rolling folks

[tolakram]

[AutoPenalti]

Any notable differences beyond 24 hours?

[NDG]

This is bad. NAM out to 66 hours. Absent a miracle we could probably all use, the question is one or two landfalls? Seriously. There goes the trough which we knew was going to happen, but it's 6 hours later now. Odds are the US is probably going to get hit by a 4 or 5.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=527

yet the NAM shifted east

Not surprised, it did the same during Harvey, it was right biased all the time in its long range.

[SFLcane]

30 some dropsondes so hoping for some encouraging news

[Aric Dunn]

umm pretty interesting synoptic changes over the us with position of the front and others at 12 hours.. should be interesting

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[AutoPenalti]

Trough is a smudge stronger than 18z

[tolakram]

[AxaltaRacing24]

[tolakram]

South of last run. Very close call for the islands.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Further north at 42h???

Edit:Just checked. It is a bit south.

[AutoPenalti]

A bit more South from 18z, about 50 miles or so.