ATL: IRMA - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4030
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6421 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:39 pm

A bit more South from 18z, about 50 miles or so.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Top
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6422 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:39 pm

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
birddogsc
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 123
Joined: Tue Aug 25, 2015 2:09 pm

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6423 Postby birddogsc » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:40 pm

Just at tick south of 18Z through 36 hours..
0 likes   
Top
pcolaman
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 380
Age: 61
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2010 9:33 am
Location: Pensacola Fla

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6424 Postby pcolaman » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:41 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Image


Ridge looks stronger
0 likes   
Top
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6425 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:41 pm

Still a bit sw
Image
0 likes   
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6426 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:41 pm

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6427 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:42 pm

The trough is way way way more pronounced and deeper at 48 hours..
1 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6428 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:43 pm

Stronger ridging and a hair south
Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6429 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:43 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:The trough is way way way more pronounced and deeper at 48 hours..


Good! Maybe it will go out to sea.
3 likes   
Top
pcolaman
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 380
Age: 61
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2010 9:33 am
Location: Pensacola Fla

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6430 Postby pcolaman » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:43 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:The trough is way way way more pronounced and deeper at 48 hours..

That's what I thought
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6431 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:43 pm

So far the 0z GFS is fairly similar to previous 18z run, slightly stronger & 25 miles further south at 54 hr.
0 likes   
Top
AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4030
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6432 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:44 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:The trough is way way way more pronounced and deeper at 48 hours..

Problem with that being ridge is stronger...
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Top
otowntiger
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1921
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:06 pm

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6433 Postby otowntiger » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:44 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:The trough is way way way more pronounced and deeper at 48 hours..

So would that equal earlier recurve, Florida miss?
0 likes   
Top
Ken711
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1074
Joined: Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:48 pm

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6434 Postby Ken711 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:44 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:The trough is way way way more pronounced and deeper at 48 hours..


A good thing right?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6435 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:44 pm

SFLcane wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:The trough is way way way more pronounced and deeper at 48 hours..


Good! Maybe it will go out to sea.


Deeper trough...Deeper Ridge. For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. The stronger the trough is the stronger the ridge will be.
4 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6436 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:45 pm

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Kohlecane
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 593
Age: 33
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:03 pm
Location: Beaufort, SC

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6437 Postby Kohlecane » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:45 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Stronger ridging and a hair south
Image

Just me or does ridge to west not as deep or atleast slower
0 likes   
Once I see the REDS and GREENS Converge on a Base Velocity. ... I'm There!!

This is NOT an Official Forecast....Just my Opinion. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
HIGHLIGHTS : '13 El Reno Tornado : 2013 Storm Chaser Tour, Joaquin; SC flood event, Matthew '16, Lowcountry Snow storm Jan '18
Top
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6438 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:45 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:The trough is way way way more pronounced and deeper at 48 hours..


But it actually shows a slightly stronger ridging to the north of Irma, the most important.
0 likes   
Top
RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6439 Postby RL3AO » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:45 pm

I don't see a big change. Height contours are maybe 20 miles further south near the base of the trough.

Image
4 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6440 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:46 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:The trough is way way way more pronounced and deeper at 48 hours..


Good! Maybe it will go out to sea.


Deeper trough...Deeper Ridge. For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. The stronger the trough is the stronger the ridge will be.


yeah that does not mean its out to sea.. just a big difference in the synoptics... I wonder if that weird cut off low forms over the MS valley now..
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests