ATL: IRMA - Models

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6441 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:47 pm

RL3AO wrote:I don't see a big change. Height contours are maybe 20 miles further south near the base of the trough.

Image



Steering and vorticity is ...
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Last edited by Aric Dunn on Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6442 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:47 pm

There is a continued SW shift with the newest data. Not sure, but I think maybe Cuba gets scrapped again?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6443 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:47 pm

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6444 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:47 pm

Hispanola has got to screw up the inflow...its so close!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6445 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:48 pm

Trough looks to be starting to lift out at 60 hours. It keeps lifting and it's going to provide a perfect outflow channel for Irma to intensify.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6446 Postby RL3AO » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:48 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
RL3AO wrote:I don't see a big change. Height contours are maybe 20 miles further south near the base of the trough.

https://i.imgur.com/AWniUiv.gif[/img]


00z
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... atl_10.png[/img]

18z
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... atl_11.png[/img]


Do you mean to compare a 500 mb map to an 850 mb map?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6447 Postby Ken711 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:49 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:There is a continued SW shift with the newest data. Not sure, but I think maybe Cuba gets scrapped again?


A trip through the mountains there would help.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6448 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:49 pm

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6449 Postby Frank P » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:49 pm

Trough pulling back H72
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6450 Postby AdamFirst » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:49 pm

I'm not seeing all that much different between prior runs. Still escapes the Shredder.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6451 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:49 pm

Stronger ridging is noticeable...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6452 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:50 pm

RL3AO wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
RL3AO wrote:I don't see a big change. Height contours are maybe 20 miles further south near the base of the trough.

https://i.imgur.com/AWniUiv.gif[/img]


00z
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... atl_10.png[/img]

18z
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... atl_11.png[/img]



Do you mean to compare a 500 mb map to an 850 mb map?


hahaha gosh darn it.. I clicked on the wrong darn map.. lol good catch.. .. thank :)
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6453 Postby MWatkins » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:50 pm

[quote="RL3AO"]I don't see a big change. Height contours are maybe 20 miles further south near the base of the trough.

At the base, yes, but the 588DM isobar is not digging into the GOM like the last run, which means, less pull to the north.

The base of the trough is broader, the 591/594 DM ridge is surging a little further west, which might make it harder for the trough to dig Irma out in the short term.

MW
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6454 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:50 pm

Unfortunately I don't see the GFS will recurve Irma east of FL so far on this run.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6455 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:51 pm

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6456 Postby sponger » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:51 pm

Still ugly on the intensity forecast. Lets see what the end of the run brings.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6457 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:51 pm

NDG wrote:Unfortunately I don't see the GFS will recurve Irma east of FL so far on this run.

It ain't happening on this run.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6458 Postby Frank P » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:52 pm

WNW at h78
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6459 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:52 pm

It missing all the islands to the north
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6460 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:52 pm

Continues to the WNW, beeline towards SFL.
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