ATL: IRMA - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
pcolaman
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 380
Age: 61
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2010 9:33 am
Location: Pensacola Fla

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6441 Postby pcolaman » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:46 pm

That would mean further west I believe.
1 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6442 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:47 pm

RL3AO wrote:I don't see a big change. Height contours are maybe 20 miles further south near the base of the trough.

Image



Steering and vorticity is ...
00z
Image

18z
Image
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4030
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6443 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:47 pm

There is a continued SW shift with the newest data. Not sure, but I think maybe Cuba gets scrapped again?
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Top
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6444 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:47 pm

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurricane Andrew
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1891
Age: 26
Joined: Sun May 23, 2010 2:53 pm
Location: KS

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6445 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:47 pm

Hispanola has got to screw up the inflow...its so close!
1 likes   

The Enthusiast
NREMT-AEMT, WX nerd

Irene '11, Sandy '12, Irma '17 (SAR)

"Hard to think we were born to live this way..." -Wage War
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6446 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:48 pm

Trough looks to be starting to lift out at 60 hours. It keeps lifting and it's going to provide a perfect outflow channel for Irma to intensify.
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6447 Postby RL3AO » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:48 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
RL3AO wrote:I don't see a big change. Height contours are maybe 20 miles further south near the base of the trough.

https://i.imgur.com/AWniUiv.gif[/img]


00z
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... atl_10.png[/img]

18z
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... atl_11.png[/img]


Do you mean to compare a 500 mb map to an 850 mb map?
1 likes   
Top
Ken711
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1074
Joined: Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:48 pm

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6448 Postby Ken711 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:49 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:There is a continued SW shift with the newest data. Not sure, but I think maybe Cuba gets scrapped again?


A trip through the mountains there would help.
0 likes   
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6449 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:49 pm

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
Frank P
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2776
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms
Contact:
Contact Frank P

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6450 Postby Frank P » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:49 pm

Trough pulling back H72
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2491
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6451 Postby AdamFirst » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:49 pm

I'm not seeing all that much different between prior runs. Still escapes the Shredder.
0 likes   
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024
Top
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6452 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:49 pm

Stronger ridging is noticeable...
Image
0 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6453 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:50 pm

RL3AO wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
RL3AO wrote:I don't see a big change. Height contours are maybe 20 miles further south near the base of the trough.

https://i.imgur.com/AWniUiv.gif[/img]


00z
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... atl_10.png[/img]

18z
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... atl_11.png[/img]



Do you mean to compare a 500 mb map to an 850 mb map?


hahaha gosh darn it.. I clicked on the wrong darn map.. lol good catch.. .. thank :)
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
MWatkins
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2574
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 7:51 pm
Location: SE Florida
Contact:
Contact MWatkins

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6454 Postby MWatkins » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:50 pm

[quote="RL3AO"]I don't see a big change. Height contours are maybe 20 miles further south near the base of the trough.

At the base, yes, but the 588DM isobar is not digging into the GOM like the last run, which means, less pull to the north.

The base of the trough is broader, the 591/594 DM ridge is surging a little further west, which might make it harder for the trough to dig Irma out in the short term.

MW
5 likes   
Updating on the twitter now: http://www.twitter.com/@watkinstrack
Top
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6455 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:50 pm

Unfortunately I don't see the GFS will recurve Irma east of FL so far on this run.
0 likes   
Top
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6456 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:51 pm

Image
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
sponger
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1620
Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2004 11:26 am
Location: St Augustine

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6457 Postby sponger » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:51 pm

Still ugly on the intensity forecast. Lets see what the end of the run brings.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1753
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6458 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:51 pm

NDG wrote:Unfortunately I don't see the GFS will recurve Irma east of FL so far on this run.

It ain't happening on this run.
1 likes   
Top
Frank P
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2776
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms
Contact:
Contact Frank P

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6459 Postby Frank P » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:52 pm

WNW at h78
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6460 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:52 pm

It missing all the islands to the north
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests