ATL: IRMA - Models

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AxaltaRacing24
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6501 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:03 pm

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6502 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:03 pm

Ignore pressure, just track ... though the silly low pressure may be effecting the track.

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6503 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:03 pm

114 Hours...Here comes the turn. Bouncing off of the North Cuban Coast like a billiard ball.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6504 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:03 pm

RL3AO wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:well besides my mistake :P.. im still only focused on that cut off low that develops.. so for no sign of it.

I don't think the random low is returning. I'm looking for the same thing.


It's still there.

Image


thats just a piece of energy that has not cut off from the flow yet and turned into a full blown mid to upper low... thats the game changer for the north turn.. that little piece of energy would not turn it without cutting off and dropping sw..
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6505 Postby pcolaman » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:04 pm

RL3AO wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:well besides my mistake :P.. im still only focused on that cut off low that develops.. so for no sign of it.

I don't think the random low is returning. I'm looking for the same thing.


It's still there.

Image


Doesn't look strong enough to me and not low enough imho
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6506 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:04 pm

SFL here she comes ...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6507 Postby otowntiger » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:04 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:Holy crap it's going to go below 900mb again!?!

Ignore the pressures. GFS forecast intensities are unreliable for the most part.

Yeah, intensity prediction is what we have least confidence in.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6508 Postby Ken711 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:05 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Image


Some shredding in Cuba?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6509 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:05 pm

After all that data hype, the exact same track.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6510 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:05 pm

Lifting north likely up the spine again
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6511 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:06 pm

yes this is 200 mb but it extends down to the mid levels and turn IRMA north.. that little piece of energy has to turn into this first..

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6512 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:06 pm

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6513 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:06 pm

otowntiger wrote:
wxmann_91 wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:Holy crap it's going to go below 900mb again!?!

Ignore the pressures. GFS forecast intensities are unreliable for the most part.

Yeah, intensity prediction is what we have least confidence in.


It's worse with the new GFS as it constantly over strengthens storms without any realistic limits. It had a typhoon with an impossibly low pressure, and dropping.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6514 Postby RL3AO » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:07 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:thats just a piece of energy that has not cut off from the flow yet and turned into a full blown mid to upper low... thats the game changer for the north turn.. that little piece of energy would not turn it without cutting off and dropping sw..


No real changes from previous runs. As it digs further south, coriolis (f) goes down, zeta (cyclonic vorticity) goes up.

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6515 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:07 pm

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6516 Postby Alyono » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:07 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:Holy crap it's going to go below 900mb again!?!

Ignore the pressures. GFS forecast intensities are unreliable for the most part.


unfortunately, these are actually plausible this time given the environment, assuming it misses the high mountains
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6517 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:07 pm

and at 120 hours.. looks like its starting to cut off .. so same thing this run..

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6518 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:07 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
RL3AO wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:I don't think the random low is returning. I'm looking for the same thing.


It's still there.

[image removed]


thats just a piece of energy that has not cut off from the flow yet and turned into a full blown mid to upper low... thats the game changer for the north turn.. that little piece of energy would not turn it without cutting off and dropping sw..

It's more defined this run if anything.

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6519 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:07 pm

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6520 Postby Raebie » Mon Sep 04, 2017 11:08 pm

Jeez. Dead center at the tip.
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