ATL: IRMA - Models

[1900hurricane]

well besides my mistake .. im still only focused on that cut off low that develops.. so for no sign of it.

The shortwave is passing through the Missouri Valley.

[AxaltaRacing24]

[tolakram]

Ignore pressure, just track ... though the silly low pressure may be effecting the track.

[SouthFLTropics]

114 Hours...Here comes the turn. Bouncing off of the North Cuban Coast like a billiard ball.

[Aric Dunn]

well besides my mistake .. im still only focused on that cut off low that develops.. so for no sign of it.

I don't think the random low is returning. I'm looking for the same thing.

It's still there.

thats just a piece of energy that has not cut off from the flow yet and turned into a full blown mid to upper low... thats the game changer for the north turn.. that little piece of energy would not turn it without cutting off and dropping sw..

[pcolaman]

well besides my mistake .. im still only focused on that cut off low that develops.. so for no sign of it.

I don't think the random low is returning. I'm looking for the same thing.

It's still there.

Doesn't look strong enough to me and not low enough imho

[SFLcane]

SFL here she comes ...

[otowntiger]

Holy crap it's going to go below 900mb again!?!

Ignore the pressures. GFS forecast intensities are unreliable for the most part.

Yeah, intensity prediction is what we have least confidence in.

[Ken711]

Some shredding in Cuba?

[AxaltaRacing24]

After all that data hype, the exact same track.

[SFLcane]

Lifting north likely up the spine again

[Aric Dunn]

yes this is 200 mb but it extends down to the mid levels and turn IRMA north.. that little piece of energy has to turn into this first..

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml


Ukmet

[tolakram]

Holy crap it's going to go below 900mb again!?!

Ignore the pressures. GFS forecast intensities are unreliable for the most part.

Yeah, intensity prediction is what we have least confidence in.

It's worse with the new GFS as it constantly over strengthens storms without any realistic limits. It had a typhoon with an impossibly low pressure, and dropping.

[RL3AO]

thats just a piece of energy that has not cut off from the flow yet and turned into a full blown mid to upper low... thats the game changer for the north turn.. that little piece of energy would not turn it without cutting off and dropping sw..

No real changes from previous runs. As it digs further south, coriolis (f) goes down, zeta (cyclonic vorticity) goes up.

[tolakram]

[Alyono]

Holy crap it's going to go below 900mb again!?!

Ignore the pressures. GFS forecast intensities are unreliable for the most part.

unfortunately, these are actually plausible this time given the environment, assuming it misses the high mountains

[Aric Dunn]

and at 120 hours.. looks like its starting to cut off .. so same thing this run..

[1900hurricane]

I don't think the random low is returning. I'm looking for the same thing.

It's still there.

[image removed]

thats just a piece of energy that has not cut off from the flow yet and turned into a full blown mid to upper low... thats the game changer for the north turn.. that little piece of energy would not turn it without cutting off and dropping sw..

It's more defined this run if anything.

[AxaltaRacing24]