ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

A slow death from dry air intrusion looks the likely outcome.

[xironman]

They are still calling it tropical, but it sure does not look like it.

[NDG]

I agree, it sure does not look purely tropical, based on the recon the strongest winds are now well away from the COC, is a subtropical system at best now.
Recon has not found hurricane force winds at the surface yet.

[NDG]

Recent AF recon confirms that Jose is no longer a hurricane.

URNT12 KNHC 181137
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL122017
A. 18/11:24:40Z
B. 33 deg 32 min N
071 deg 11 min W
C. 700 mb 2901 m
D. 57 kt
E. 331 deg 47 nm
F. 076 deg 63 kt
G. 332 deg 52 nm
H. 977 mb
I. 9 C / 3048 m
J. 16 C / 3052 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF308 1112A JOSE OB 07
MAX FL WIND 63 KT 332 / 52 NM 11:09:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 090 / 15 KT

[weathaguyry]

On and off showers in Nassau County with the winds starting to pick up a little bit

[weathaguyry]

Just a wobble, right?

[AutoPenalti]

Jose looks like it's trying a last hurrah with developing towers, moving N-NW.

[Kazmit]

Gusty with periods of heavy showers here. Radar link:
http://weather.bm/tools/graphics.asp?name=250KM%20SRI&user=

[txwatcher91]

Looks like Jose is transitioning, or has transitioned, to a subtropical system.

[1900hurricane]

From Alyono (I assume) on Twitter:

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/909807193372942336

[WeatherEmperor]

From Alyono on Twitter:

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/909807193372942336

Wait...Derek Ortt is Alyono here on Storm2k???


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[AutoPenalti]

From Alyono on Twitter:

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/909807193372942336

Mind blown.

[ronjon]

From Alyono on Twitter:

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/909807193372942336

Mind blown.

Ummm..better tell Euro too as it increases its intensity by 20 mb as it heads north! Soon to be a naked swirl based on SAT.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/12L/imagery/avn_lalo-animated.gif

[gatorcane]

Hard to believe this gains the kind of strength the models generally show with the way it looks like now and conditions are only getting worse from here.

[weathaguyry]

Hard to believe this gains the kind of strength the models generally show with the way it looks like now and conditions are only getting worse from here.

No chance of gaining barclonic energy to at least slow the weakening?

[ozonepete]

Somebody better tell Jose fast that he's weakening. A large area of strong convection is blowing up around the center. Oh, and better tell someone that the center just jogged significantly westward. It went from 71.1 to almost 72 degrees in the last few hours.

[tpinnola]

Somebody better tell Jose fast that he's weakening. A large area of strong convection is blowing up around the center. Oh, and better tell someone that the center just jogged significantly westward. It went from 71.1 to almost 72 degrees in the last few hours.

Is it just me or do the models not show the center that close to the coast?

[Exalt]

Question, will Jose get upgraded in the TCRs? I do recall that 137kt (IIRC) SFMR from peak (or maybe not yet peak) intensity.. If so, 3 Cat 5s in one season is just.. Wow, I didn't think we would have anything like this after 2005 or 2007.

[znel52]

This stall wasn't forecasted was it? Wonder how long he is going to sit.

[gatorcane]

Wow Jose is looking bad. How on earth are the models going to verify with the strengthening over the next 24 hours?