ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion
A slow death from dry air intrusion looks the likely outcome.
1 likes
Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion
They are still calling it tropical, but it sure does not look like it.
0 likes
Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion
I agree, it sure does not look purely tropical, based on the recon the strongest winds are now well away from the COC, is a subtropical system at best now.
Recon has not found hurricane force winds at the surface yet.
Recon has not found hurricane force winds at the surface yet.
0 likes
Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion
Recent AF recon confirms that Jose is no longer a hurricane.
URNT12 KNHC 181137
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL122017
A. 18/11:24:40Z
B. 33 deg 32 min N
071 deg 11 min W
C. 700 mb 2901 m
D. 57 kt
E. 331 deg 47 nm
F. 076 deg 63 kt
G. 332 deg 52 nm
H. 977 mb
I. 9 C / 3048 m
J. 16 C / 3052 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF308 1112A JOSE OB 07
MAX FL WIND 63 KT 332 / 52 NM 11:09:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 090 / 15 KT
URNT12 KNHC 181137
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL122017
A. 18/11:24:40Z
B. 33 deg 32 min N
071 deg 11 min W
C. 700 mb 2901 m
D. 57 kt
E. 331 deg 47 nm
F. 076 deg 63 kt
G. 332 deg 52 nm
H. 977 mb
I. 9 C / 3048 m
J. 16 C / 3052 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF308 1112A JOSE OB 07
MAX FL WIND 63 KT 332 / 52 NM 11:09:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 090 / 15 KT
0 likes
- weathaguyry
- Category 5
- Posts: 1272
- Age: 21
- Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
- Location: Long Island, NY
Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion
On and off showers in Nassau County with the winds starting to pick up a little bit
0 likes
My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
- weathaguyry
- Category 5
- Posts: 1272
- Age: 21
- Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
- Location: Long Island, NY
Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion
Just a wobble, right?
0 likes
My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3950
- Age: 27
- Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
- Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion
Jose looks like it's trying a last hurrah with developing towers, moving N-NW.
1 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
- Kazmit
- Category 5
- Posts: 1915
- Age: 21
- Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
- Location: Williamsburg VA for college, Bermuda otherwise
Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion
Gusty with periods of heavy showers here. Radar link:
http://weather.bm/tools/graphics.asp?name=250KM%20SRI&user=
http://weather.bm/tools/graphics.asp?name=250KM%20SRI&user=
0 likes
Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1498
- Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2005 2:29 pm
Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion
Looks like Jose is transitioning, or has transitioned, to a subtropical system.
1 likes
- 1900hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 6044
- Age: 33
- Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
- Location: Houston, TX
- Contact:
Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion
Last edited by 1900hurricane on Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:21 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4806
- Age: 40
- Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
- Location: South Florida
Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion
Wait...Derek Ortt is Alyono here on Storm2k???
Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk
2 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3950
- Age: 27
- Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
- Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion
Mind blown.
2 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion
AutoPenalti wrote:
Mind blown.
Ummm..better tell Euro too as it increases its intensity by 20 mb as it heads north! Soon to be a naked swirl based on SAT.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/12L/imagery/avn_lalo-animated.gif
0 likes
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23499
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion
Hard to believe this gains the kind of strength the models generally show with the way it looks like now and conditions are only getting worse from here.
0 likes
- weathaguyry
- Category 5
- Posts: 1272
- Age: 21
- Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
- Location: Long Island, NY
Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion
gatorcane wrote:Hard to believe this gains the kind of strength the models generally show with the way it looks like now and conditions are only getting worse from here.
No chance of gaining barclonic energy to at least slow the weakening?
0 likes
My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 4743
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
- Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY
Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion
Somebody better tell Jose fast that he's weakening. A large area of strong convection is blowing up around the center. Oh, and better tell someone that the center just jogged significantly westward. It went from 71.1 to almost 72 degrees in the last few hours.
2 likes
Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion
ozonepete wrote:Somebody better tell Jose fast that he's weakening. A large area of strong convection is blowing up around the center. Oh, and better tell someone that the center just jogged significantly westward. It went from 71.1 to almost 72 degrees in the last few hours.
Is it just me or do the models not show the center that close to the coast?
1 likes
Not an expert.
Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion
Question, will Jose get upgraded in the TCRs? I do recall that 137kt (IIRC) SFMR from peak (or maybe not yet peak) intensity.. If so, 3 Cat 5s in one season is just.. Wow, I didn't think we would have anything like this after 2005 or 2007.
1 likes
Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion
This stall wasn't forecasted was it? Wonder how long he is going to sit.
1 likes
'96 Bertha/'96 Fran/'98 Bonnie/'99 Floyd/'03 Isabel/'04 Alex/'05 Ophelia/'11 Irene/'14 Arthur/'16 Matthew
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data.
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23499
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: ATL: JOSE - Hurricane - Discussion
Wow Jose is looking bad. How on earth are the models going to verify with the strengthening over the next 24 hours?
1 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest