ATL: IRMA - Models

[psyclone]

certainly these slight west shifts are bringing the potential for hazardous weather to the western side of the peninsula too. we seem to have lost our little margin of safety

[stormreader]

There is at least one other model that sends this through the gulf from the Caribbean. CFS that people use in the super long-range but not heard much about it in the short range here

No doubt about it. As consistent as the modeling has been, 5 and one-half days can still bring important changes. Just can't turn your back on it.

[Evenstar]

Please stop the dramatics. Sorry, but while this may be a large and dangerous storm the talk of utter destruction is a little over the top. Whoever gets the right eyewall is going to be hurting for sure but these GFS super low pressures cannot be believed.

Is not dramatics. At this point anything is possible, just a couple of days ago many were dismissing the idea Irma being almost a Cat 5 tonight.
Next time please PM me, I am not a little kid.

Going to leave this out here because I'm just not sure where to draw the line.

Sure, it's possible, and the UKMET does show pressure drops at the end of it's run. I'm trying to balance a real threat with fear mongering, not an easy thing to do post Harvey and the disaster it caused. The GFS has been dead wrong on these super low pressures ever since the upgrade so I think it's safe to ignore it unless another model agrees. Right now 920 looks reasonable, which is strong enough!

Mark, I've got nothing but mad respect for you, but I think it was less about what you said (which may or may not be reasonable) and more about HOW you said it.
Just sayin'...

[tarheelprogrammer]

One thing I have noticed is that the CMC is initializing the storm at 980 mbs. Could that not have an impact on the track? Wouldn't a weaker storm move more west, as a strong storm would move more northerly when given the opportunity?

Why Irma is about to plow over the Leewards is because it has been so strong. The deep layer ridging affected it more. In the short term, the CMC may occur. However, once this moves into the Bahamas, the deeper system will then feel the weakness

We have to stop saying weak = west

It was a question. I did not say it was going to do that. It is more common than not that weaker does equal west though, which is why the question was asked. Just trying to understand why the CMC went so far west this run. It is very odd to me, as well as others, especially given what the GFS is doing.

[sponger]

How important is tonight's Euro run!? Did anyone catch the GFS growing Jose to a high end Cat 2? It does love high intensity. Who knows?

[pcolaman]

I have always heard that until it get above 20 n then the northern turn starts as a rule of thumb. Old timers saying

[Raebie]

There is at least one other model that sends this through the gulf from the Caribbean. CFS that people use in the super long-range but not heard much about it in the short range here

And how reliable is that model?

[AutoPenalti]

How important is tonight's Euro run!?

Umm, as important as any other run?

[Hurricaneman]

How important is tonight's Euro run!?

Very, could be similar to the ensembles which are over Florida and would form a consensus

[fci]

I don't know about that major south shift of the CMC over Cuba. Hard to buy into that with the incredible consistency from the Euro and GFS. It might be a foretaste though of a stronger west ridge which could guide Irma through the Straits and farther out over the Gulf. Trying to make some sense of it.

The track over Cuba is what Ike did 9 years ago

[sponger]

How important is tonight's Euro run!?

Umm, as important as any other run?

I disagree. The Keys and Coastal SFL may disagree as well.

[pcolaman]

I don't know about that major south shift of the CMC over Cuba. Hard to buy into that with the incredible consistency from the Euro and GFS. It might be a foretaste though of a stronger west ridge which could guide Irma through the Straits and farther out over the Gulf. Trying to make some sense of it.

The track over Cuba is what Ike did 9 years ago

As for Ivan did also.but was on the south side of Cuba.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Interpolated higher spatial resolution, over shoots the runway.

[bamajammer4eva]

There is at least one other model that sends this through the gulf from the Caribbean. CFS that people use in the super long-range but not heard much about it in the short range here

[img]https://i.imgur.com/CRN61MG.png?1]

And how reliable is that model?

Never see it mentioned here so probably worse than the NAM. It goes out 700 hours and the use it more for the seasonal outlooks I believe.

[Bolebuns]

One thing I have noticed is that the CMC is initializing the storm at 980 mbs. Could that not have an impact on the track? Wouldn't a weaker storm move more west, as a strong storm would move more northerly when given the opportunity?

Why Irma is about to plow over the Leewards is because it has been so strong. The deep layer ridging affected it more. In the short term, the CMC may occur. However, once this moves into the Bahamas, the deeper system will then feel the weakness

We have to stop saying weak = west

I am confused (not surprising). I thought that stronger systems were known to "pump the ridge" and thus tend to head more westerly than otherwise.

Also, long as I am here...a question for the more experienced for this newbie:

Though I am sure that, at least for now, models indicate nothing about this storm moving as far west as TX, I want to the possibility as an example for my question. That is, what effect a previous storm, such as Harvey, might have on sea surface temperatures. Specifically, how long would it take before the churning effect from a previous storm would allow for temps to normalize to the extent that they could support a major storm? And, to what extent do models (and which models) take surface temps into account. I assume some models more than others, as I saw someone post that the GFS isn't as reliable as others for intensity purposes.

Sorry if the question(s) isn't eloquently stated...but at least I try!

[AutoPenalti]

How important is tonight's Euro run!?

Umm, as important as any other run?

I disagree. The Keys and Coastal SFL may disagree as well.

Every run is important to know where it's expected to go.

The Euro is equally as important as the GFS and all other models. They may not be extremely accurate, but they are still important nonetheless.

I predict that the Euro will be in line or close to inline with what the GFS has, especially now with the new data.

[AdamFirst]

HWRF 48hr

Comfortably away from Puerto Rico...steady WNW heading

[USTropics]

Not much change between the 18z and 00z GFS ensembles (some of the easterly outliers have shifted west):

[Hurricaneman]

HWRF 48hr

Comfortably away from Puerto Rico...steady WNW heading

Might actually be conservative on pressure, it's pretty close to that pressure currently, let's see where the hwrf ends up

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Evening everyone,

Have not been on all day, just got back form prep at the house in Key Largo. The last thing I wanted to see was a direct hit on my house damn. Tomorrow will start prep's on the Miami house. On a side note on the local radio down there, a recorded clip form a weather guy stated Irma should not be any issue for the keys.