ATL: IRMA - Models

[AutoPenalti]

There it is, right to the NNW at 144

[Langinbang187]

Euro tracks it directly over Cuba for for over 24 hours. That would most definitely cause some significant weakening. Cuba may end up biting the bullet for Florida if this verifies.

Don't think so, hasn't traversed through the shredder...

If it rides Cuba for an extended period of time, it won't matter. Weakening will most certainly occur if this track were to come to fruition.

[otowntiger]

Due north.

Ugh.

[caneseddy]

But it is a graze landfall.

Also that part of Cuba is not as mountainous as the SE portion...it will weaken it yet but not significantly unfortunately

[northjaxpro]

Yes, there is the turn. It will run right along the Florida Gulf Coast is what it is likely going to do.

[lando]

doesnt look as deep but im not a pro

[AutoPenalti]

Rapid pressure drop before SFL landfall @939mb

[blp]

On one end it is good that it might be weaker but it is also worse from a track perspective because now SFLA is on the NE side of the Eyewall. On the 12z the NE side was mostly offshore.

[psyclone]

Euro tracks it directly over Cuba for for over 24 hours. That would most definitely cause some significant weakening. Cuba may end up biting the bullet for Florida if this verifies.

Don't think so, hasn't traversed through the shredder...

If it rides Cuba for an extended period of time, it won't matter. Weakening will most certainly occur if this track were to come to fruition.

Weakening would occur but it would likely wind back up assuming good upper level conditions in the straits. Dennis left Cuba as a cat 1 and was a cat 4 as it passed west of Tampa. At peak season things escalate quickly. I was swimming in the Gulf today and it is blood warm as it usually is on Labor day.

[northjaxpro]

On one end it is good that it might be weaker but it is also worse from a track perspective because now SFLA is on the NE side of the Eyewall. On the 12z the NE side was mostly offshore.

Correct

[caneseddy]

Rapid pressure drop before SFL landfall @939mb

Happens a lot of time with storms coming south to north from Cuba...they seem to intensify rapidly once in the Straits...bad bad trend for Florida tonIght

[northjaxpro]

Ssts in the waters off SW Florida are near 90 degrees. Irma will really feed off that.

[Aric Dunn]

ok I have seen enough... we still need more data.. good night all..

[AdamFirst]

Up the spine.

[lando]

tampa would be in a lot of trouble here... most flood prone city in a hurricane zone in the US

[AutoPenalti]

Landfall near Ft. Meyers(?)

Broward and Miami-Dade are in for it on the NE quadrant.

[otowntiger]

I know shear is hard to predict, maybe there will be some shear that pops out of nowhere to keep this bugger in check?

[joey]

Rapid pressure drop before SFL landfall @939mb

wow still a cat 4? tanks sf on the eastern side too

[NDG]

Miami Dade might be out of the woods for a direct hit if the models keep shifting west, ridging is stronger to the north of Irma as tracks close to the Greater Antilles on each consecutive run.

[caneseddy]

Landfall near Ft. Meyers(?)

Broward and Miami-Dade are in for it on the NE quadrant.

Looks like Naples/Marco Island

And yes metro south Florida is going to take it on th chin