ATL: IRMA - Models

[joey]

A much better result for Florida. Worse for GA, NC/SC

I'm not sure it's a better result for the SE Fla metro areas though..the three major globals either have a landfall or pass 30 miles or less off shore, this should bring the western eyewall onshore assuming these exact forecasts verify.

Any eye wall is obviously bad, but rather the western eye wall than having it go up the spine and be in the NE quadrant of the eyewall. Just my $0.02

so if the euro is right and south fl get the western eye will it still have cat 4 winds thanks

[NFLnut]

Someone mentioned this earlier, that because of the unique geometrical shape of Florida, just slight deviations in track guidance seem like huge shifts. In fact, a slight adjustment 50-100 miles east or west (which is well within range of the positional error of models even after 96 hours) has huge implications in impact. Makes it quite messy for evacuation procedures as well (i.e. larger area of land mass under potential threat now = more people needing to be evacuated).

I believe it was just a 16 mile correction to the east that made Matthew a lot less damaging to a lot of Florida last year. Even a little nudge can make a HUGE difference!

[LarryWx]

The 0Z Euro track would give CHS about the worst of the storm surge with the movement of the center NNW into the coast ~25 miles SW of them on Mon evening based on the closeup maps that I have. SAV, though hit with a bit heavier rain (8") than CHS (6 "), wouldn't get near the storm surge CHS would get.
I know it is very early to pin down the time of landfall. However, I will say that IF the 0Z Euro were to play out, the center would be approaching CHS at low tide, a big help. Low tide is then around 8 PM. How important are the tides? Low tide is 6 feet lower than high tide in CHS.

Regardless and most importantly, this run tells me that the eastward trend is in play now and further eastward track adjustments are quite possible later today

[MatthewsRevenge]

The piece of energy that has materialized and likely going to be the factor that will turn Irma much like Matthew is leaving Alberta and ready to dive into place. Because the feature exists and movement looks pretty perfect, looks like more east shifts will materialize.

Will have to see if the trough does anything funny like lift out even further or if the short weakens / does not move as far east as fast as Irma. Pretty complicated, but I think Florida's chances are down and dropping very fast for landfall. Impacts likely less than advertised if it stays to the east. We can see the W side of the storm is not very powerful.

Don't get your hopes up, we still got until Friday for Florida's path. Once Friday comes, we'll finally see where it really goes.

[fci]

Yeah this thing is definitely gonna make a FL landfall. I'm almost convinced of it. I think Euro, UK and GFS are still having errors on where this goes. I mean yeah it could definitely land at SE FL, but I don't see how it totally misses landfall. Florida is still in the crossfires of this. So yeah this is definitely "not better".

Maybe not. It could ride up the coast 50-100 miles offshore not too unlike Matthew did.
The trend is our friend so a model run here and there doesn't assure anything but as a resident of Palm Beach County, I would be happier to see Irma to my East than the same distance to my West.

Not if it continues to grow in size. You can still get some nasty wind gusts and rain from Irma even with the hurricane far from WPB.

Good point since we haven't had a storm as strong as Irma in a long time. But I am a slave to climatology and history and don't recall serious issues with storms that have passed to the East. Hurricane Force winds are up to 60 miles from the center so it would be a relatively close call on the short side of my 50-100 mile scenario. I'm pretty confident that NOT being on the dirty (East) side would make a huge difference.

[Bocadude85]

A much better result for Florida. Worse for GA, NC/SC

I'm not sure it's a better result for the SE Fla metro areas though..the three major globals either have a landfall or pass 30 miles or less off shore, this should bring the western eyewall onshore assuming these exact forecasts verify.

Any eye wall is obviously bad, but rather the western eye wall than having it go up the spine and be in the NE quadrant of the eyewall. Just my $0.02

I agree but a landfall in Ft.Myers/Naples like the 12z Euro had wasn't going to put the SE Fla metro area in the eyewall at all. These east coast runs are bringing the eyewall onshore SE Fla..besides we all know the forecast from the models won't be dead on...could still be 100 miles east or west.

[brghteys1216]

Would the east side still likely be in play should Irma not pick up speed?

[joey]

I'm not sure it's a better result for the SE Fla metro areas though..the three major globals either have a landfall or pass 30 miles or less off shore, this should bring the western eyewall onshore assuming these exact forecasts verify.

Any eye wall is obviously bad, but rather the western eye wall than having it go up the spine and be in the NE quadrant of the eyewall. Just my $0.02

I agree but a landfall in Ft.Myers/Naples like the 12z Euro had wasn't going to put the SE Fla metro area in the eyewall at all. These east coast runs are bringing the eyewall onshore SE Fla..besides we all know the forecast from the models won't be dead on...could still be 100 miles east or west.

agree and after the euro run the 5 am cone might shift right with the symbol plot right on fl on the middle imo

[Bocadude85]

Maybe not. It could ride up the coast 50-100 miles offshore not too unlike Matthew did.
The trend is our friend so a model run here and there doesn't assure anything but as a resident of Palm Beach County, I would be happier to see Irma to my East than the same distance to my West.

Not if it continues to grow in size. You can still get some nasty wind gusts and rain from Irma even with the hurricane far from WPB.

Good point since we haven't had a storm as strong as Irma in a long time. But I am a slave to climatology and history and don't recall serious issues with storms that have passed to the East. Hurricane Force winds are up to 60 miles from the center so it would be a relatively close call on the short side of my 50-100 mile scenario. I'm pretty confident that NOT being on the dirty (East) side would make a huge difference.

I'm a huge climatology person also, if Irma passes west of Andros Island coming from the east or southeast then I would say a Fla landfall drastically increases since I have not been able to find a hurricane that missed Florida to the East that passed west of Andros.

[NFLnut]

I'm not sure it's a better result for the SE Fla metro areas though..the three major globals either have a landfall or pass 30 miles or less off shore, this should bring the western eyewall onshore assuming these exact forecasts verify.

Any eye wall is obviously bad, but rather the western eye wall than having it go up the spine and be in the NE quadrant of the eyewall. Just my $0.02

I agree but a landfall in Ft.Myers/Naples like the 12z Euro had wasn't going to put the SE Fla metro area in the eyewall at all. These east coast runs are bringing the eyewall onshore SE Fla..besides we all know the forecast from the models won't be dead on...could still be 100 miles east or west.

True about if the landfall was Gulf coast for eastern Florida, and I agree that the models will still make adjustments, but I also think that any adjustments at this point and after will be considerably less than 100 miles.

[MatthewsRevenge]

^ In that case, Florida is gonna go up the spine then with the eyewall somewhere in SE FL. The true story is will it go simply up north, northeast or northwest?

[Vdogg]

I said Myrtle Beach this run. I wasn't that far off. I believe there is now consensus between the 3 major models, GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET.

I'm just glad that I'm not a total crackpot. Now to get plans to board up my business and move my father.

Nope, you're not. All of us who have lived in the NC/VA area for any length of time have seen storms take this path. Even with the shifts west I was mindful it could swing back our way. Still a couple of days to go until we get a first landfall, but the next 120 hours look clear with a turn east of Florida. This is starting to look a lot like Matthew.

[SapphireSea]

The piece of energy that has materialized and likely going to be the factor that will turn Irma much like Matthew is leaving Alberta and ready to dive into place. Because the feature exists and movement looks pretty perfect, looks like more east shifts will materialize.

Will have to see if the trough does anything funny like lift out even further or if the short weakens / does not move as far east as fast as Irma. Pretty complicated, but I think Florida's chances are down and dropping very fast for landfall. Impacts likely less than advertised if it stays to the east. We can see the W side of the storm is not very powerful.

Don't get your hopes up, we still got until Friday for Florida's path. Once Friday comes, we'll finally see where it really goes.

I'd say the determining factor will come into play as soon as Thursday. Think though that the models have latched onto the shortwave that is going to dive down from Alberta Canada where it is currently. It's path if you XTRAP everything should almost be in perfect sync with the new E solutions being presented. Only factors that exist is faster Irma, faster trough lift, and exactly what steering flow the shortwave will make at mid-layers out that S on approach. If a shortwave is in play the W side of the storm will see lower winds due to lax pressure gradient. I'd say SC/NC is going to quickly trend up in likely targets.

[MatthewsRevenge]

Don't know if anyone posted this but FL's cone has been spread. I don't think this will change completely yet if the path is indeed eastward:



BUT if it does, consider west Florida to be spared. Still early.

[MatthewsRevenge]

The piece of energy that has materialized and likely going to be the factor that will turn Irma much like Matthew is leaving Alberta and ready to dive into place. Because the feature exists and movement looks pretty perfect, looks like more east shifts will materialize.

Will have to see if the trough does anything funny like lift out even further or if the short weakens / does not move as far east as fast as Irma. Pretty complicated, but I think Florida's chances are down and dropping very fast for landfall. Impacts likely less than advertised if it stays to the east. We can see the W side of the storm is not very powerful.

Don't get your hopes up, we still got until Friday for Florida's path. Once Friday comes, we'll finally see where it really goes.

I'd say the determining factor will come into play as soon as Thursday. Think though that the models have latched onto the shortwave that is going to dive down from Alberta Canada where it is currently. It's path if you XTRAP everything should almost be in perfect sync with the new E solutions being presented. Only factors that exist is faster Irma, faster trough lift, and exactly what steering flow the shortwave will make at mid-layers out that S on approach. If a shortwave is in play the W side of the storm will see lower winds due to lax pressure gradient. I'd say SC/NC is going to quickly trend up in likely targets.

If it's a faster Irma, then I agree, we definitely need to look out. Even if the eye is away from us, we can still get some damage as either a Cat 2 or 1. Or even 3. It's a good possibility.

[LarryWx]

0Z EPS mean is slightly NE of the 12Z EPS near the latitude of N FL due to having fewer Gulf tracks rather than fewer FL tracks and slightly further north average positions (more progressive movement).

[NDG]

Wow, that was a big shift towards the GFS the Euro did. Not looking good for SE FL if both models are correct, hopefully they will continue shifting east.

[HurricaneEdouard]

I'm not buying the sharpness of the northward turn; it'd be one of the sharpest poleward turns I've seen since Typhoon Chanchu in 2006. Models were predicting an unnaturally sharp turn west-northwest earlier, too, that didn't materialise.

If it turns more gently, it could end up where GFS is predicting while still slamming SE Florida. Much more likely IMO.

[artist]

I'm not sure it's a better result for the SE Fla metro areas though..the three major globals either have a landfall or pass 30 miles or less off shore, this should bring the western eyewall onshore assuming these exact forecasts verify.

Any eye wall is obviously bad, but rather the western eye wall than having it go up the spine and be in the NE quadrant of the eyewall. Just my $0.02

I agree but a landfall in Ft.Myers/Naples like the 12z Euro had wasn't going to put the SE Fla metro area in the eyewall at all. These east coast runs are bringing the eyewall onshore SE Fla..besides we all know the forecast from the models won't be dead on...could still be 100 miles east or west.

But they would get the dirty side of the storm, not good.

[fci]

Don't know if anyone posted this but FL's cone has been spread. I don't think this will change completely yet if the path is indeed eastward:



BUT if it does, consider west Florida to be spared. Still early.

Kind of interesting when you look at the map and 5day NHC location and compare that to the models showing the storm EAST of Florida. Major disconnect here.