USTropics wrote:Someone mentioned this earlier, that because of the unique geometrical shape of Florida, just slight deviations in track guidance seem like huge shifts. In fact, a slight adjustment 50-100 miles east or west (which is well within range of the positional error of models even after 96 hours) has huge implications in impact. Makes it quite messy for evacuation procedures as well (i.e. larger area of land mass under potential threat now = more people needing to be evacuated).
I believe it was just a 16 mile correction to the east that made Matthew a lot less damaging to a lot of Florida last year. Even a little nudge can make a HUGE difference!