CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

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FLpanhandle91
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1601 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Thu Aug 23, 2018 12:53 pm

East shift in Euro 12z through 24 hours even after initializing with a weaker and shallower storm than what we currently have on hand.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1602 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 23, 2018 12:53 pm

So far the first 2 frames showing a due NW movement.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018082312/hawaii/windspeed-streamlines/20180823-1500z.html
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1603 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 23, 2018 12:54 pm

Image
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BYG Jacob

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1604 Postby BYG Jacob » Thu Aug 23, 2018 12:55 pm

Alyono wrote:994mb

TRASH CAN

Means its staying the same as the last umpteen runs, closish, but no landfall.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1605 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Thu Aug 23, 2018 12:55 pm

Ridging also seems to be a bit stronger this run to its south. Is Lane influenced by this ridge to carry it slightly east around the north side of the ridging?
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1606 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:00 pm

the apparently increased organization and reduced shear. likely due to the change in the storm's direction. it is moving more on a vector with the shear thus reducing the relative shear. on top of that the shear has a more divergent presence which is aiding the convection.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1607 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:01 pm

FLpanhandle91 wrote:Ridging also seems to be a bit stronger this run to its south. Is Lane influenced by this ridge to carry it slightly east around the north side of the ridging?

It has an influence on Lane if the intensity holds. Any due west movement won't start until Lane gets sheared apart.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1608 Postby chris_fit » Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:02 pm

EURO Caves to the GFS, for now, big E shift from previous run.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1609 Postby NotoSans » Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:02 pm

Good to see the Euro finally getting in line with other model guidance.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1610 Postby MississippiWx » Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:02 pm

Pretty significant jump east this run for the Euro...
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1611 Postby Alyono » Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:02 pm

EC goes to the GFS with its tail between its legs and it's head down
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1612 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:02 pm

Lanai landfall this run.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1613 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:04 pm

FLpanhandle91 wrote:Lanai landfall this run.


Correction: EXTREMELY close to Lanai. Have to see next frame.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1614 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:04 pm

GFS has just had its Sandy win. Bottom line, when shear is involved the Euro seems to have big issues.

Image
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BYG Jacob

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1615 Postby BYG Jacob » Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:04 pm

Alyono wrote:EC goes to the GFS with its tail between its legs and it's head down

Given how poorly the Euro had been handling Lane, this was inevitable.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1616 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:08 pm

CPHC and Maui County need to make some serious decision in the next advisory. I bet Many Hawaiian residents are still thinking they are still in luck and Lane will stay well off shore.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1617 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:08 pm

Phew. Theres finally an agreement.
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BYG Jacob

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1618 Postby BYG Jacob » Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:08 pm

Euro also has Lane deepening before landfall.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1619 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:12 pm

12Z animation

Image
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1620 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:13 pm

BYG Jacob wrote:Euro also has Lane deepening before landfall.


Not sure if it makes landfall but is very close to. Starts moving west at hour 72 due to decoupling.

Right now the final track is dependent on Lane. Is it going to weaken or not?
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