CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
FLpanhandle91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1033
Age: 34
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2010 3:50 pm
Location: Fort Walton Beach, FL

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1601 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Thu Aug 23, 2018 12:53 pm

East shift in Euro 12z through 24 hours even after initializing with a weaker and shallower storm than what we currently have on hand.
1 likes   
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1602 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 23, 2018 12:53 pm

So far the first 2 frames showing a due NW movement.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018082312/hawaii/windspeed-streamlines/20180823-1500z.html
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1603 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 23, 2018 12:54 pm

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
BYG Jacob

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1604 Postby BYG Jacob » Thu Aug 23, 2018 12:55 pm

Alyono wrote:994mb

TRASH CAN

Means its staying the same as the last umpteen runs, closish, but no landfall.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
FLpanhandle91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1033
Age: 34
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2010 3:50 pm
Location: Fort Walton Beach, FL

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1605 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Thu Aug 23, 2018 12:55 pm

Ridging also seems to be a bit stronger this run to its south. Is Lane influenced by this ridge to carry it slightly east around the north side of the ridging?
1 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1606 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:00 pm

the apparently increased organization and reduced shear. likely due to the change in the storm's direction. it is moving more on a vector with the shear thus reducing the relative shear. on top of that the shear has a more divergent presence which is aiding the convection.
1 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1607 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:01 pm

FLpanhandle91 wrote:Ridging also seems to be a bit stronger this run to its south. Is Lane influenced by this ridge to carry it slightly east around the north side of the ridging?

It has an influence on Lane if the intensity holds. Any due west movement won't start until Lane gets sheared apart.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3222
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1608 Postby chris_fit » Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:02 pm

EURO Caves to the GFS, for now, big E shift from previous run.
3 likes   
Top
NotoSans
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1380
Age: 25
Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2015 1:15 am
Location: Toronto
Contact:
Contact NotoSans

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1609 Postby NotoSans » Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:02 pm

Good to see the Euro finally getting in line with other model guidance.
3 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
MississippiWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1699
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Hattiesburg, Mississippi

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1610 Postby MississippiWx » Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:02 pm

Pretty significant jump east this run for the Euro...
3 likes   
This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1611 Postby Alyono » Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:02 pm

EC goes to the GFS with its tail between its legs and it's head down
11 likes   
Top
User avatar
FLpanhandle91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1033
Age: 34
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2010 3:50 pm
Location: Fort Walton Beach, FL

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1612 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:02 pm

Lanai landfall this run.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
FLpanhandle91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1033
Age: 34
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2010 3:50 pm
Location: Fort Walton Beach, FL

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1613 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:04 pm

FLpanhandle91 wrote:Lanai landfall this run.


Correction: EXTREMELY close to Lanai. Have to see next frame.
0 likes   
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1614 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:04 pm

GFS has just had its Sandy win. Bottom line, when shear is involved the Euro seems to have big issues.

Image
3 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
BYG Jacob

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1615 Postby BYG Jacob » Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:04 pm

Alyono wrote:EC goes to the GFS with its tail between its legs and it's head down

Given how poorly the Euro had been handling Lane, this was inevitable.
3 likes   
Top
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1616 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:08 pm

CPHC and Maui County need to make some serious decision in the next advisory. I bet Many Hawaiian residents are still thinking they are still in luck and Lane will stay well off shore.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15980
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1617 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:08 pm

Phew. Theres finally an agreement.
2 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
BYG Jacob

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1618 Postby BYG Jacob » Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:08 pm

Euro also has Lane deepening before landfall.
1 likes   
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1619 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:12 pm

12Z animation

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15980
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#1620 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:13 pm

BYG Jacob wrote:Euro also has Lane deepening before landfall.


Not sure if it makes landfall but is very close to. Starts moving west at hour 72 due to decoupling.

Right now the final track is dependent on Lane. Is it going to weaken or not?
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2018”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests