ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wx98]

Looks like they held 105 kt at 0z. Kinda surprised, figured they’d go for 110 kt. Pressure at 953 mb.

[supercane4867]

RAW T# up to 7.0

[Buck]

If those levels prove true, he could possibly tickle a cat 5 tonight. That being said, the rampant IR leads me to thoughts of a EWRC as well

The storm is at least 12-18 hours away from an ewrc. This thing will become a solid cat4 first.

It probably won’t have time for EWRC. It’s going to landfall first.

Also, EWRC is everyone’s favorite thing to throw around. It’s not always the saving grace. Look at Maria. She maintained or I believe maybe even strengthened through one of hers. Also, they cause wind fields to expand quickly.

[CrazyC83]

There has NEVER (at least since 1851) been a category 4 or 5 hurricane that has hit the Florida Panhandle. That can tell you something.

[EquusStorm]

I'm still in awe. I can't believe this thing is happening. From a broad Caribbean gyre to the strongest central Panhandle hit since Eloise if not significantly stronger, in just a few days. It just seems absolutely surreal.



Best it's ever looked, eye amidst an amazing CDO. Just wow.



Last daylight shot. Just LOOK at those cloud tops. You can just tell the motion is ridiculous wrapping around that center, and towers still exploding upwards east of center. Afraid the fast intensification has not stopped.

[wx98]

One name I haven’t seen mentioned is Camille. I know Camille was much stronger and further west, but this certainly draws similarities to Camille.

How do they compare in regards to size? I know Camille was quite small.

I’m not sure with size, but in terms of path and landfall (projected) intensity is more where I was going with it.

[xironman]

I think it has a good chance at 130 kts by morning. It's really taking off on satellite.

Wow...been extremely busy at work and looked at the last visible satellite and I've never seen that before.

Be safe....

It is getting mean little eye pushing out cirrus at will. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?p ... =undefined

[Buck]

Looks like they held 105 kt at 0z. Kinda surprised, figured they’d go for 110 kt. Pressure at 953 mb.

I reckon we might see some special advisories tonight.

[johngaltfla]

There has NEVER (at least since 1851) been a category 4 or 5 hurricane that has hit the Florida Panhandle. That can tell you something.

Just wow. I never realized that stat. God help those folks.

[jdjaguar]

Whether he makes Cat 5 or not (and I think he will get close if not achieve it), the impact won’t be much different. This is a monster and if you are still in the path, get out. It’s not too late. Head W or NW (or I guess it makes sense for some to head down the peninsula).

Head east to JAX/Daytona

West is probably gridlock

[TexasF6]

Any advice on wind speeds in Columbus Georgia? School is cancelled. I have friends in the city with small kids and they are worried.

[RL3AO]

There has NEVER (at least since 1851) been a category 4 or 5 hurricane that has hit the Florida Panhandle. That can tell you something.

If it was a steady state cat 4 approaching the coast, then you would see the typical weakening. If it intensifies to 125+ kt by morning, I think that stat may ends tomorrow.

[michelinj]

It’s 00:54 here in London! I need to sleep but each update of satellite makes me stay up for the next frame and so on! It’s worth it for this storm however

[sikkar]

Eye wall creeping in view on long rage radars.

[O Town]

000
URNT12 KWBC 092328
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142018
A. 09/23:07:13Z
B. 26.46 deg N 086.47 deg W
C. NA
D. 955 mb
E. 195 deg 16 kt
F. OPEN SW - SE
G. C20
H. 100 kt
I. 089 deg 13 nm 23:03:50Z
J. 183 deg 124 kt
K. 089 deg 17 nm 23:02:51Z
L. 86 kt
M. 269 deg 12 nm 23:10:20Z
N. 350 deg 96 kt
O. 269 deg 15 nm 23:11:14Z
P. 14 C / 2448 m
Q. 21 C / 2456 m
R. 12 C / NA
S. 12345 / NA
T. 0.01 / 2 nm
U. NOAA2 1214A MICHAEL OB 09
MAX FL WIND 124 KT 089 / 17 NM 23:02:51Z
MAX FL TEMP 24 C 269 / 11 NM FROM FL CNTR

Why is the VDM saying open?....

[floridasun78]

hope not Hurricane Katrina level with wind or hurr andrew . twc channel saying could wrost hurr fl have seen andrew wind 175 could MICHAEL go higher?

[PavelGaborik10]

Absolutely insane how quickly this has all managed to come together here.

[meriland29]

124kt max fl? Wow...

[Buck]

Any advice on wind speeds in Columbus Georgia? School is cancelled. I have friends in the city with small kids and they are worried.

Tropical storm winds possible/probable... but they should be safe indoors. Temporary power loss possible.

[ronyan]

Intermediate advisory says Michael getting much better organized. Expect a strong uptick in winds over the coming hours.