ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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wx98
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2041 Postby wx98 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:48 pm

Looks like they held 105 kt at 0z. Kinda surprised, figured they’d go for 110 kt. Pressure at 953 mb.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2042 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:48 pm

Image RAW T# up to 7.0 Image

Image
Last edited by supercane4867 on Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Buck
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2043 Postby Buck » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:49 pm

Sciencerocks wrote:
meriland29 wrote:If those levels prove true, he could possibly tickle a cat 5 tonight. That being said, the rampant IR leads me to thoughts of a EWRC as well



The storm is at least 12-18 hours away from an ewrc. This thing will become a solid cat4 first.


It probably won’t have time for EWRC. It’s going to landfall first.

Also, EWRC is everyone’s favorite thing to throw around. It’s not always the saving grace. Look at Maria. She maintained or I believe maybe even strengthened through one of hers. Also, they cause wind fields to expand quickly.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2044 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:49 pm

There has NEVER (at least since 1851) been a category 4 or 5 hurricane that has hit the Florida Panhandle. That can tell you something.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2045 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:50 pm

I'm still in awe. I can't believe this thing is happening. From a broad Caribbean gyre to the strongest central Panhandle hit since Eloise if not significantly stronger, in just a few days. It just seems absolutely surreal.

Image

Best it's ever looked, eye amidst an amazing CDO. Just wow.

Image

Last daylight shot. Just LOOK at those cloud tops. You can just tell the motion is ridiculous wrapping around that center, and towers still exploding upwards east of center. Afraid the fast intensification has not stopped.
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Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2046 Postby wx98 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:50 pm

PavelGaborik10 wrote:
wx98 wrote:One name I haven’t seen mentioned is Camille. I know Camille was much stronger and further west, but this certainly draws similarities to Camille.


How do they compare in regards to size? I know Camille was quite small.


I’m not sure with size, but in terms of path and landfall (projected) intensity is more where I was going with it.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2047 Postby xironman » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:51 pm

lrak wrote:
RL3AO wrote:I think it has a good chance at 130 kts by morning. It's really taking off on satellite.


Wow...been extremely busy at work and looked at the last visible satellite and I've never seen that before.

Be safe....


It is getting mean little eye pushing out cirrus at will. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?p ... =undefined
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2048 Postby Buck » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:51 pm

wx98 wrote:Looks like they held 105 kt at 0z. Kinda surprised, figured they’d go for 110 kt. Pressure at 953 mb.


I reckon we might see some special advisories tonight.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2049 Postby johngaltfla » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:51 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:There has NEVER (at least since 1851) been a category 4 or 5 hurricane that has hit the Florida Panhandle. That can tell you something.


Just wow. I never realized that stat. God help those folks. :eek:
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2050 Postby jdjaguar » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:52 pm

Buck wrote:Whether he makes Cat 5 or not (and I think he will get close if not achieve it), the impact won’t be much different. This is a monster and if you are still in the path, get out. It’s not too late. Head W or NW (or I guess it makes sense for some to head down the peninsula).

Head east to JAX/Daytona

West is probably gridlock
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2051 Postby TexasF6 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:54 pm

Any advice on wind speeds in Columbus Georgia? School is cancelled. I have friends in the city with small kids and they are worried.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2052 Postby RL3AO » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:54 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:There has NEVER (at least since 1851) been a category 4 or 5 hurricane that has hit the Florida Panhandle. That can tell you something.


If it was a steady state cat 4 approaching the coast, then you would see the typical weakening. If it intensifies to 125+ kt by morning, I think that stat may ends tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2053 Postby michelinj » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:55 pm

It’s 00:54 here in London! I need to sleep but each update of satellite makes me stay up for the next frame and so on! It’s worth it for this storm however
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2054 Postby sikkar » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:55 pm

Eye wall creeping in view on long rage radars.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2055 Postby O Town » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:55 pm

000
URNT12 KWBC 092328
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142018
A. 09/23:07:13Z
B. 26.46 deg N 086.47 deg W
C. NA
D. 955 mb
E. 195 deg 16 kt
F. OPEN SW - SE
G. C20
H. 100 kt
I. 089 deg 13 nm 23:03:50Z
J. 183 deg 124 kt
K. 089 deg 17 nm 23:02:51Z
L. 86 kt
M. 269 deg 12 nm 23:10:20Z
N. 350 deg 96 kt
O. 269 deg 15 nm 23:11:14Z
P. 14 C / 2448 m
Q. 21 C / 2456 m
R. 12 C / NA
S. 12345 / NA
T. 0.01 / 2 nm
U. NOAA2 1214A MICHAEL OB 09
MAX FL WIND 124 KT 089 / 17 NM 23:02:51Z
MAX FL TEMP 24 C 269 / 11 NM FROM FL CNTR

Why is the VDM saying open?.... :?:
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2056 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:56 pm

hope not Hurricane Katrina level with wind or hurr andrew . twc channel saying could wrost hurr fl have seen andrew wind 175 could MICHAEL go higher?
Last edited by floridasun78 on Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:57 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2057 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:56 pm

Absolutely insane how quickly this has all managed to come together here.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2058 Postby meriland29 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:57 pm

124kt max fl? Wow...
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2059 Postby Buck » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:58 pm

TexasF6 wrote:Any advice on wind speeds in Columbus Georgia? School is cancelled. I have friends in the city with small kids and they are worried.


Tropical storm winds possible/probable... but they should be safe indoors. Temporary power loss possible.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2060 Postby ronyan » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:58 pm

Intermediate advisory says Michael getting much better organized. Expect a strong uptick in winds over the coming hours.
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