ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[BobHarlem]

You sure those are the most recent Ukmet runs?

They are, another view

[tarheelprogrammer]

More ridging on 18z NAM.

[Aric Dunn]

NAM 72 hours.. much more ridging ..

[MJGarrison]

NAM 72 hours.. much more ridging ..

Any pics? Where can you subscribe to the NAM?


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[AutoPenalti]

NAM has the latest data right?

[tarheelprogrammer]

With the setup at 84 hours on the NAM, where would it go from there? Any METS?

[pgoss11]

More ridging on 18z NAM.

Looks to be moving wnw at 84 hours. Maybe a Georgia or SC landfall.

[Nimbus]

FWIW the NAVGEM has a Outer Banks landfall and moves it NW into VA.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0812&fh=51

Verbatim, that would be very unfortunate for the Chesapeake. And by unfortunate, I mean...

That means the Swamp wouldn't get drained, it would get flooded.

Notice at the 48 hour frame the Navgem has the weakness over Bermuda?
GFS has that pulling on the 94L remnants and keeps the ridge weak there a little longer.
Doesn't make much difference except weaker steering flow delays landfall.

[edu2703]

[Blown Away]

More ridging on 18z NAM.

18z NAM...

The recent models that have trended W, HWRF & NAM have accelerated Flo. So it seems if Flo gets here ahead of schedule she may go more West... Something to watch...

[Hurricane Andrew]

NHC mentions chance of long-term dry air issues, although Berg doesn't seem to think it will be an issue.

Code: Select all

One fly in the ointment is that the
SHIPS diagnostics are keeping mid-level relative humidities around
the cyclone around 50 percent, which isn't particularly moist, but
I'm going to assume that Florence will be able to scour out the dry
air within its circulation in the coming days.

[Aric Dunn]

if the NAM is saying anything.. is that ridging is stronger and slightly farther south. lets see.. and hope data has been ingested into the GFS 18z

[chaser1]

More ridging on 18z NAM.

Looks to be moving wnw at 84 hours. Maybe a Georgia or SC landfall.

That seems reasonable assuming storm position and high pressure strength/orientation accuracy

[AutoPenalti]

So far with the new data from the balloons, the synoptic runs seem to push this further west, the main guidance seem to push this further east.

[storm4u]

NAM 72 hours.. much more ridging ..

12z would have been way ots if it went past 84 hours.. that should have been suspected and it's the nam in the tropics enough said

[storm4u]

So far with the new data from the balloons, the synoptic runs seem to push this further west, the main guidance seem to push this further east.

Don't think. Its injested until 0z

[AutoPenalti]

So far with the new data from the balloons, the synoptic runs seem to push this further west, the main guidance seem to push this further east.

Don't think. Its injested until 0z

I thought some data made it to this run...?

[txwatcher91]

At hour 78 the NAM has a weaker ridge than the 12z GFS did. Nam has a 594dm ridge and GFS a 597 one. Furthermore by hour 84 there is very little difference between the NAM and the GFS (which sends it off the OBX of NC). There is absolutely nothing on the NAM that indicates a track that would head for Florida or Georgia and I wouldn’t use it past 48 hours especially for tropical activity. The 18z GFS should give us a better idea of what changes the balloon data may contribute.

[tallywx]

So far with the new data from the balloons, the synoptic runs seem to push this further west, the main guidance seem to push this further east.

Don't think. Its injested until 0z

I thought some data made it to this run...?

The first sounding wasn't taken until 17:59z. No way that made it into 18z initialization. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/# ... 6AFLORENCE

[tarheelprogrammer]

Anyone able to confirm new data about environment made it into 18z model runs?