ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[TheDreamTraveler]

Interesting. Even though Florence drifting around the NC coast is different from the euro...it ends up showing Florence's low drift NW into where the 12z euro had it around. So there's a bit more consistency there now.

[Hurricaneman]

cmc similar too gfs

The models are starting to move towards a loop, this is a forecasting headache and a scenario like this not making initial landfall but looping, where the full landfall is will depend if it makes landfall the first time but if not we don’t know how big the loop might be so I think a landfall could still happen or maybe second one happen farther south like between Myrtle Beach and Jacksonville Florida, might have to say we may see something we’ve never seen before in any case

[N2FSU]

0z GFS:

[Vdogg]

UKMET trended south.

South to where?

[meriland29]

Almost every frame of the 00z GFS upto 72hrs is about 2 degrees faster than 18z and 1 degree south....

[tarheelprogrammer]

UKMET trended south.

South to where?

Topsail close to the ECMWF.

[BobHarlem]

0z CMC OBX flattening run -- note this also eventually sends Isaac toward Houston a hurricane at the end of the run.

[Hurricaneman]

If the Euro shows an offshore loop then is where the headaches begin for the NHC so let’s hope the Euro doesn’t join the GFS

[wxmann_91]

0Z FV3 stays put around Wilmington/Topsoil Beach.

[bigGbear]

Does anyone have any thing beyond 102 hours on the FV3 - Tidbits seems hung up.

[bigGbear]

from 90 to 102 it seemed to be crawling up the coastline

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

from 90 to 102 it seemed to be crawling up the coastline

Blocking ridge, it really can't go anywhere which is the problem.

[mcheer23]

Well this EURO run is concerning...

[JtSmarts]

Well this EURO run is concerning...

Looks like horrible flooding for parts of SC and NC.

[MississippiWx]

Well this EURO run is concerning...

The worst case scenario.

[emeraldislenc]

Where does the Euro come ashore

[MississippiWx]

Where does the Euro come ashore

NC/SC border. Moves west into South Carolina very slowly. Makes landfall at 72 hours and is only 50 or so miles inland at 120 hours.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Where does the Euro come ashore

NC/SC border. Moves west into South Carolina very slowly. Makes landfall at 72 hours and is only 50 or so miles off the coast at 120 hours.

It stays there for around 5 days.

[TheDreamTraveler]

This is starting to look really bad. If the storm sits over the spot that it made landfall...I can't even imagine.

[aperson]

phenomenal thread on reasons behind track differences in GFS and ECMWF (click to see the rest of the thread):

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1039404118052237312