ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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TheDreamTraveler
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3401 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:26 pm

Interesting. Even though Florence drifting around the NC coast is different from the euro...it ends up showing Florence's low drift NW into where the 12z euro had it around. So there's a bit more consistency there now.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3402 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:34 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:cmc similar too gfs

The models are starting to move towards a loop, this is a forecasting headache and a scenario like this not making initial landfall but looping, where the full landfall is will depend if it makes landfall the first time but if not we don’t know how big the loop might be so I think a landfall could still happen or maybe second one happen farther south like between Myrtle Beach and Jacksonville Florida, might have to say we may see something we’ve never seen before in any case
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3403 Postby N2FSU » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:34 pm

0z GFS:

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3404 Postby Vdogg » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:37 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:UKMET trended south.

South to where?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3405 Postby meriland29 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:38 pm

Almost every frame of the 00z GFS upto 72hrs is about 2 degrees faster than 18z and 1 degree south....
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3406 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:39 pm

Vdogg wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:UKMET trended south.

South to where?


Topsail close to the ECMWF. :cry:
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3407 Postby BobHarlem » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:41 pm

0z CMC OBX flattening run -- note this also eventually sends Isaac toward Houston a hurricane at the end of the run.

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3408 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Sep 11, 2018 12:02 am

If the Euro shows an offshore loop then is where the headaches begin for the NHC so let’s hope the Euro doesn’t join the GFS
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3409 Postby wxmann_91 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 12:10 am

0Z FV3 stays put around Wilmington/Topsoil Beach.

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3410 Postby bigGbear » Tue Sep 11, 2018 12:48 am

Does anyone have any thing beyond 102 hours on the FV3 - Tidbits seems hung up.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3411 Postby bigGbear » Tue Sep 11, 2018 12:51 am

from 90 to 102 it seemed to be crawling up the coastline
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3412 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 12:53 am

bigGbear wrote:from 90 to 102 it seemed to be crawling up the coastline


Blocking ridge, it really can't go anywhere which is the problem.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3413 Postby mcheer23 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:18 am

Well this EURO run is concerning...
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3414 Postby JtSmarts » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:21 am

mcheer23 wrote:Well this EURO run is concerning...


Looks like horrible flooding for parts of SC and NC.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3415 Postby MississippiWx » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:24 am

mcheer23 wrote:Well this EURO run is concerning...


The worst case scenario.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3416 Postby emeraldislenc » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:24 am

Where does the Euro come ashore
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3417 Postby MississippiWx » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:28 am

emeraldislenc wrote:Where does the Euro come ashore


NC/SC border. Moves west into South Carolina very slowly. Makes landfall at 72 hours and is only 50 or so miles inland at 120 hours.
Last edited by MississippiWx on Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3418 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:29 am

MississippiWx wrote:
emeraldislenc wrote:Where does the Euro come ashore


NC/SC border. Moves west into South Carolina very slowly. Makes landfall at 72 hours and is only 50 or so miles off the coast at 120 hours.

It stays there for around 5 days.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3419 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:52 am

This is starting to look really bad. If the storm sits over the spot that it made landfall...I can't even imagine.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3420 Postby aperson » Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:14 am

phenomenal thread on reasons behind track differences in GFS and ECMWF (click to see the rest of the thread):

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1039404118052237312


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