ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[USTropics]

00z ensemble models continue to increase probability of genesis.

ECMWF ensembles over 70% probability of genesis:


NCEP ensembles at 100% probability of genesis:


UKMET at 85% probability of development:

[TheStormExpert]

06z GFS MUCH more bullish in the Esatern GoM heading towards a FL Big Bend landfall. Maybe a minimal hurricane similar to Hermine (2016) isn’t out of the question.

EDIT: Turns NW @ 72hrs.

[Sciencerocks]

06z GFS MUCH more bullish in the Esatern GoM heading towards a FL Big Bend landfall. Maybe a minimal hurricane similar to Hermine (2016) isn’t out of the question.

EDIT: Turns NW @ 72hrs.

Is the northeastern Gulf sea surface temperatures warm enough to sustain a hurricane in late May? The area near western florida is below 26c.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, 6Z GFS has a Cat 1 986mb tropical cyclone in the Florida panhandle near Fort Walton Beach by 0Z Sunday evening. Much more bullish on development for sure.

[DestinHurricane]

6Z GFS into pensacola

[northjaxpro]

6Z GFS run stalls out the cyclone over South Alabama beginning Tuesday morning and dangerous flooding potential with it in that region next week.

[NDG]

Finally nice to see the latest Operational GFS join the rest of most of the models.

In 24 hrs it shifted the track almost 400 miles west, looks like we finally have a good idea of a potential track anywhere from Panama City west to the MS River.

[cycloneye]

I go with 30%-80% at next STWO.

[Dean4Storms]

06z GFS center goes over Gulf Breeze, FL just East of P'Cola with the highest wind gusts between Ft. Walton Bch. to Panama City Bch. to 60mph, sustained winds are at 50mph with pressure getting down to 985mb before landfall in the early AM hours Monday morning.

[northjaxpro]

We will have to see how it all evolves this weekend. GFS has gone a bit more bullish the last couple of runs now in developing the cyclone to be a bit stronger on its approach to landfall. It appears it will be bordering on possibly being a low end Category 1. Regardless,extremely heavy rain potential for the Florida Panhandle and South Alabama region as the cyclone may stall out after landfall early next week.

[cycloneye]

@BigJoeBastardi
From early May been touting early season development due to phase 2/3 MJO idea. Confidence higher than ever on development and track toward
central Gulf coast,

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/999610193544732673

[Ivanhater]

Overnight models are certainly concerning

[SFLcane]

So now that the gfs has joined the pack starting to fell confident our holiday weekend in SFL won’t be a washout.

[NDG]

I go with 30%-80% at next STWO.

I'm going with 40%-90% now that there's some agreement between the GFS and Euro with both showing development as early as Saturday morning, if not Friday night.

[tolakram]

6Z GFS



0Z Euro



So how about some trends?


GFS



Euro

[cycloneye]

40%-80% is.

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
740 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad, stationary surface low pressure system centered over the
southeastern Yucatan Peninsula is gradually becoming better defined.
Although showers and thunderstorms, along with strong gusty winds,
are confined primarily to the adjacent waters of the northwestern
Caribbean Sea, gradual development of this system is expected during
the next couple of days as it drifts northward near the Yucatan
Peninsula. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for development through early next week, and a subtropical
or tropical depression is likely to form by late Saturday over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall is forecast across western Cuba and over much of
Florida and the northern Gulf Coast into early next week. In
addition, the threat of rip currents will steadily increase along
the Gulf coast from Florida westward to Louisiana over Memorial Day
weekend. For more information on these threats, please see products
issued by your local weather office. The next Special Tropical
Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 200 PM EDT this
afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[NDG]

It never fails, most times when the GFS & Euro are so far apart they end up trending towards each other.

[rolltide]

So now that the gfs has joined the pack starting to fell confident our holiday weekend in SFL won’t be a washout.

So now that the gfs has joined the pack starting to fell confident our holiday weekend in SFL won’t be a washout.

Not looking good for my pool party and cookout in Pensacola Sunday though.

[NDG]

Latest Euro shows 90L developing Friday night into a somewhat sheared tropical system but getting that subtropical look as it gets close or underneath the UL trough.



GFS also shows a similar transformation as well.

[USTropics]

So now that the gfs has joined the pack starting to fell confident our holiday weekend in SFL won’t be a washout.

It could still be a wet Memorial Day for parts of Florida (and not just the panhandle), unfortunately. There will be plenty of convergence that extends far from the center:

00z ECMWF 6hr accumulated precipitation for Monday evening 5/28:


06z GFS 6hr accumulated precipitation for Monday evening 5/28: