ECMWF ensembles over 70% probability of genesis:

NCEP ensembles at 100% probability of genesis:

UKMET at 85% probability of development:

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TheStormExpert wrote:06z GFS MUCH more bullish in the Esatern GoM heading towards a FL Big Bend landfall. Maybe a minimal hurricane similar to Hermine (2016) isn’t out of the question.
EDIT: Turns NW @ 72hrs.
cycloneye wrote:I go with 30%-80% at next STWO.
SFLcane wrote:So now that the gfs has joined the pack starting to fell confident our holiday weekend in SFL won’t be a washout.
SFLcane wrote:So now that the gfs has joined the pack starting to fell confident our holiday weekend in SFL won’t be a washout.
SFLcane wrote:So now that the gfs has joined the pack starting to fell confident our holiday weekend in SFL won’t be a washout.
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